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Start AJ Barner or Darren Waller? Week 10

Updated Nov 10, 1:36 PM ET.

Start AJ Barner over Darren Waller

Start

AJ Barner

TE · SEA · at LV

Market projects
7.3
recent weeks avg
LV D vs TE
18.2
4th most to TEs (2026)
Upside
High
94 of 100 at TE
Snap share
87%
Through Week 9
Target share
14%
Through Week 9
Sit

Darren Waller

TE · CAR · at NO

Market projects
5.7
recent weeks avg
NO D vs TE
16.4
8th most to TEs (2026)
Upside
High
97 of 100 at TE
Snap share
49%
Through Week 9
Target share
12%
Through Week 9

Should I drop AJ Barner for Darren Waller?

Not on these numbers alone. AJ Barner projects 47 market-implied PPR points from Week 10 through Week 17 (6.7 a game over 7 games) and Darren Waller 50 (6.2 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 10 the call starts AJ Barner over Darren Waller.

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Our Week 10 call

Start AJ Barner over Darren Waller in Week 10.

Market-based projections have AJ Barner at 7.3 points and Darren Waller at 5.7, a gap of 1.7. No player market is posted for AJ Barner this week yet, so his 7.3 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 7, 8 and 9 (7.0, 8.2 and 6.8); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Darren Waller this week yet, so his 5.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 7, 8 and 9 (6.4, 6.0 and 4.7); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 10 player market is posted for AJ Barner yet. His market-based projections were 7.0, 8.2 and 6.9 points in Weeks 7, 8 and 9, an average of 7.4, which stands in until his Week 10 market posts.

No Week 10 player market is posted for Darren Waller yet. His market-based projections were 6.4, 6.0 and 4.7 points in Weeks 7, 8 and 9, an average of 5.7, which stands in until his Week 10 market posts.

That puts AJ Barner 1.7 points ahead of Darren Waller on these projections.

Week 10 matchups

AJ Barner and SEA visit LV on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

LV allowed 18.2 fantasy points a game to TEs this season over 8 games, the 4th most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 56 yards and a touchdown a game against LV.

Darren Waller and CAR visit NO on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

NO allowed 16.4 fantasy points a game to TEs this season over 8 games, the 8th most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 65 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game against NO.

By points allowed to the position, AJ Barner has the softer matchup.

Injury status

AJ Barner is not on the injury report.

Darren Waller is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 10

Through Week 9, AJ Barner played 87 percent of SEA snaps, drew 14 percent of the targets, earned 5 percent of the air yards and had 15 percent of the red zone chances.

AJ Barner, Week 6 against DEN: 79 of 85 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 16 yards.

AJ Barner, Week 7 against KC: 55 of 69 snaps, 3 carries for 4 yards, 5 targets and 4 catches for 42 yards.

AJ Barner, Week 8 against CHI: 60 of 63 snaps, 5 targets and 2 catches for 23 yards.

AJ Barner, Week 9 against ARI: 48 of 67 snaps, 3 carries for 3 yards, 4 targets and 2 catches for 7 yards, 2 touchdowns.

Through Week 9, Darren Waller played 49 percent of CAR snaps, drew 12 percent of the targets, earned 14 percent of the air yards and had 7 percent of the red zone chances.

Darren Waller, Week 6 against PHI: 36 of 79 snaps, 2 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Darren Waller, Week 7 against TB: 25 of 56 snaps, 2 targets and 1 catch for 50 yards, 1 touchdown.

Darren Waller, Week 8 against GB: 45 of 73 snaps, 2 targets and 1 catch for 11 yards.

Darren Waller, Week 9 against DEN: 35 of 66 snaps, 10 targets and 8 catches for 90 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, AJ Barner played 17 games for SEA and scored 147.3 PPR points, 8.7 a game, finishing TE14.

He caught 52 of 68 targets for 519 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 12 red zone targets and 248 air yards.

He was on the field for 78 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Darren Waller played 9 games for MIA and scored 88.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing TE33.

He caught 24 of 34 targets for 283 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 7 red zone targets and 210 air yards.

He was on the field for 45 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 10 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 10, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop AJ Barner for Darren Waller?

    Not on these numbers alone. AJ Barner projects 47 market-implied PPR points from Week 10 through Week 17 (6.7 a game over 7 games) and Darren Waller 50 (6.2 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 10 the call starts AJ Barner over Darren Waller.

  • Should I drop Darren Waller for AJ Barner?

    Not on these numbers alone. Darren Waller projects 50 market-implied PPR points from Week 10 through Week 17 (6.2 a game over 8 games) and AJ Barner 47 (6.7 a game over 7 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 10 the call starts AJ Barner over Darren Waller.

Week 10 on the board

Elsewhere on the board