Start Nico Collins or A.J. Brown? Week 9

Our Week 9 call

Start A.J. Brown over Nico Collins in Week 9.

Market-based projections have A.J. Brown at 13.7 points and Nico Collins at 14.7, a gap of 1.0. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. A.J. Brown still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 18 against 22, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for A.J. Brown this week yet, so his 13.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6 and 7 (11.8 and 15.5); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 14.7 fantasy points for Nico Collins, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The market-based projection for Nico Collins is 66 receiving yards, 5-6 receptions and 0-1 touchdowns (8, 9 and 10 market sources).

No Week 9 player market is posted for A.J. Brown yet. His market-based projections were 11.8 and 15.5 points in Weeks 6 and 7, an average of 13.7, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

The market-based projection for A.J. Brown is 0-1 touchdowns (3 market sources).

That puts Nico Collins 1.0 points ahead of A.J. Brown on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Nico Collins and HOU visit LAC on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

LAC allowed 30.3 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 7 games, the 16th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 133 yards and 0.9 touchdowns a game against LAC.

A.J. Brown and NE host GB on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

GB allowed 34.8 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 8 games, the 9th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 152 yards and 0.9 touchdowns a game against GB.

By points allowed to the position, A.J. Brown has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Nico Collins is not on the injury report.

A.J. Brown is listed as questionable with a ankle injury.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 7, Nico Collins played 71 percent of HOU snaps, drew 22 percent of the targets, earned 30 percent of the air yards and had 13 percent of the red zone chances.

Nico Collins, Week 4 against DAL: 38 of 55 snaps, 8 targets and 7 catches for 118 yards, 2 touchdowns.

Nico Collins, Week 5 against TEN: 47 of 66 snaps, 7 targets and 5 catches for 56 yards.

Nico Collins, Week 6 against JAX: 46 of 63 snaps, 1 carry for 5 yards, 5 targets and 3 catches for 74 yards.

Nico Collins, Week 7 against NYG: 41 of 61 snaps, 5 targets and 2 catches for 6 yards.

Through Week 7, A.J. Brown played 68 percent of NE snaps, drew 22 percent of the targets, earned 35 percent of the air yards and had 15 percent of the red zone chances.

A.J. Brown, Week 1 against SEA: 31 of 71 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 26 yards.

A.J. Brown, Week 6 against NYJ: 52 of 68 snaps, 10 targets and 3 catches for 27 yards.

A.J. Brown, Week 7 against CHI: 49 of 54 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 48 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Nico Collins played 15 games for HOU and scored 226.2 PPR points, 15.1 a game, finishing WR8.

He caught 71 of 120 targets for 1117 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 16 red zone targets and 793 air yards.

He was on the field for 77 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, A.J. Brown played 15 games for PHI and scored 220.3 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing WR11.

He caught 78 of 121 targets for 1003 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 12 red zone targets and 735 air yards.

He was on the field for 91 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

• Start Amon-Ra St. Brown over Nico Collins.
• Start CeeDee Lamb over Nico Collins.
• Start Chris Olave over Nico Collins.
• Start A.J. Brown over Christian Watson.
• Start A.J. Brown over DJ Moore.
• Start A.J. Brown over Emeka Egbuka.