Should I drop Jake Ferguson for Cade Otton?

Not on these numbers alone. Jake Ferguson projects 80 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (8.0 a game over 10 games) and Cade Otton 77 (7.7 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Cade Otton over Jake Ferguson.

Start Jake Ferguson or Cade Otton? Week 7

Updated Oct 20, 2:41 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Cade Otton over Jake Ferguson

Start

Cade Otton

TE · TB · at CAR

Market projects: 7.5; recent weeks avg
CAR D vs TE: 16.0; 9th most to TEs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 46 of 100 at TE
Snap share: 95%; Through Week 6
Target share: 16%; Through Week 6

Sit

Jake Ferguson

TE · DAL · at PHI

Market projects: 6.4; fantasy pts
PHI D vs TE: 11.7; 13th fewest to TEs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 64 of 100 at TE
Snap share: 68%; Through Week 6
Target share: 10%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Cade Otton for Jake Ferguson?

Not on these numbers alone. Cade Otton projects 77 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (7.7 a game over 10 games) and Jake Ferguson 80 (8.0 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Cade Otton over Jake Ferguson.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Cade Otton over Jake Ferguson in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Cade Otton at 7.5 points and Jake Ferguson at 6.4, a gap of 1.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Cade Otton this week yet, so his 7.5 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4, 5 and 6 (7.7, 7.7 and 7.2); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Cade Otton yet. His market-based projections were 7.7, 7.7 and 7.2 points in Weeks 4, 5 and 6, an average of 7.5, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

The market-based projection for Cade Otton is 0.3 touchdowns (8 market sources).

Player markets imply 6.4 fantasy points for Jake Ferguson, with 100 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.

The market-based projection for Jake Ferguson is 20 receiving yards, 2-3 receptions and 0.3 touchdowns (8, 8 and 11 market sources).

That puts Cade Otton 1.2 points ahead of Jake Ferguson on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Cade Otton and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 16.0 fantasy points a game to TEs this season over 5 games, the 9th most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 56 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against CAR.

Jake Ferguson and DAL visit PHI on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

PHI allowed 11.7 fantasy points a game to TEs this season over 6 games, the 13th fewest in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 48 yards and 0.3 touchdowns a game against PHI.

By points allowed to the position, Cade Otton has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Cade Otton is not on the injury report.

Jake Ferguson is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Cade Otton played 95 percent of TB snaps, drew 16 percent of the targets, earned 12 percent of the air yards and had 4 percent of the red zone chances.

Cade Otton, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 56 yards.

Cade Otton, Week 4 against GB: 60 of 64 snaps, 6 targets and 4 catches for 37 yards.

Cade Otton, Week 5 against DAL: 66 of 72 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 25 yards.

Cade Otton, Week 6 against PIT: 74 of 74 snaps, 2 targets and 1 catch for 4 yards.

Through Week 6, Jake Ferguson played 68 percent of DAL snaps, drew 10 percent of the targets, earned 6 percent of the air yards and had 6 percent of the red zone chances.

Jake Ferguson, Week 3 against BAL: 51 of 74 snaps, 5 targets and 3 catches for 23 yards, 1 touchdown.

Jake Ferguson, Week 4 against HOU: 55 of 78 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 11 yards.

Jake Ferguson, Week 5 against TB: 50 of 60 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 19 yards.

Jake Ferguson, Week 6 against GB: 42 of 78 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 13 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Cade Otton played 16 games for TB and scored 122.2 PPR points, 7.6 a game, finishing TE22.

He caught 59 of 81 targets for 572 yards and 1 touchdown, with 5 red zone targets and 261 air yards.

He was on the field for 93 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Jake Ferguson played 17 games for DAL and scored 188.1 PPR points, 11.1 a game, finishing TE5.

He caught 82 of 102 targets for 600 yards and 8 touchdowns, with 23 red zone targets and 293 air yards.

He was on the field for 67 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Cade Otton for Jake Ferguson?
Not on these numbers alone. Cade Otton projects 77 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (7.7 a game over 10 games) and Jake Ferguson 80 (8.0 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Cade Otton over Jake Ferguson.
Should I drop Jake Ferguson for Cade Otton?
Not on these numbers alone. Jake Ferguson projects 80 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (8.0 a game over 10 games) and Cade Otton 77 (7.7 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Cade Otton over Jake Ferguson.