Start AJ Barner or Jake Ferguson? Week 7

Updated Oct 20, 2:41 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start AJ Barner over Jake Ferguson

Start

AJ Barner

TE · SEA · vs KC

Market projects: 6.8; fantasy pts
KC D vs TE: 20.0; 3rd most to TEs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 73 of 100 at TE
Snap share: 90%; Through Week 6
Target share: 13%; Through Week 6

Sit

Jake Ferguson

TE · DAL · at PHI

Market projects: 6.4; fantasy pts
PHI D vs TE: 11.7; 13th fewest to TEs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 64 of 100 at TE
Snap share: 68%; Through Week 6
Target share: 10%; Through Week 6

Should I drop AJ Barner for Jake Ferguson?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Jake Ferguson projects 80 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (8.0 a game over 10 games), AJ Barner 67 (6.7 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts AJ Barner over Jake Ferguson, 6.8 to 6.4 projected PPR points. So make the move after his Week 7 game.

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Our Week 7 call

Start AJ Barner over Jake Ferguson in Week 7.

Market-based projections have AJ Barner at 6.8 points and Jake Ferguson at 6.4, a gap of 0.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 6.8 fantasy points for AJ Barner, with 100 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.

The market-based projection for AJ Barner is 25 receiving yards, 2-3 receptions and 0.3 touchdowns (11, 11 and 12 market sources).

Player markets imply 6.4 fantasy points for Jake Ferguson, with 100 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.

The market-based projection for Jake Ferguson is 20 receiving yards, 2-3 receptions and 0.3 touchdowns (8, 8 and 11 market sources).

That puts AJ Barner 0.4 points ahead of Jake Ferguson on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

AJ Barner and SEA host KC on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

KC allowed 20.0 fantasy points a game to TEs this season over 5 games, the 3rd most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 73 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against KC.

Jake Ferguson and DAL visit PHI on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

PHI allowed 11.7 fantasy points a game to TEs this season over 6 games, the 13th fewest in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 48 yards and 0.3 touchdowns a game against PHI.

By points allowed to the position, AJ Barner has the softer matchup.

Injury status

AJ Barner is not on the injury report.

Jake Ferguson is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, AJ Barner played 90 percent of SEA snaps, drew 13 percent of the targets, earned 4 percent of the air yards and had 13 percent of the red zone chances.

AJ Barner, Week 3 against WAS: 61 of 67 snaps, 9 targets and 5 catches for 69 yards.

AJ Barner, Week 4 against LAC: 54 of 60 snaps, 3 targets and 1 catch for 12 yards.

AJ Barner, Week 5 against SF: 60 of 63 snaps, 5 targets and 3 catches for 20 yards.

AJ Barner, Week 6 against DEN: 79 of 85 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 16 yards.

Through Week 6, Jake Ferguson played 68 percent of DAL snaps, drew 10 percent of the targets, earned 6 percent of the air yards and had 6 percent of the red zone chances.

Jake Ferguson, Week 3 against BAL: 51 of 74 snaps, 5 targets and 3 catches for 23 yards, 1 touchdown.

Jake Ferguson, Week 4 against HOU: 55 of 78 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 11 yards.

Jake Ferguson, Week 5 against TB: 50 of 60 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 19 yards.

Jake Ferguson, Week 6 against GB: 42 of 78 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 13 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, AJ Barner played 17 games for SEA and scored 147.3 PPR points, 8.7 a game, finishing TE14.

He caught 52 of 68 targets for 519 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 12 red zone targets and 248 air yards.

He was on the field for 78 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Jake Ferguson played 17 games for DAL and scored 188.1 PPR points, 11.1 a game, finishing TE5.

He caught 82 of 102 targets for 600 yards and 8 touchdowns, with 23 red zone targets and 293 air yards.

He was on the field for 67 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop AJ Barner for Jake Ferguson?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Jake Ferguson projects 80 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (8.0 a game over 10 games), AJ Barner 67 (6.7 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts AJ Barner over Jake Ferguson, 6.8 to 6.4 projected PPR points. So make the move after his Week 7 game.
Should I drop Jake Ferguson for AJ Barner?
No. Keep Jake Ferguson: he projects 80 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (8.0 a game over 10 games), AJ Barner 67 (6.7 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts AJ Barner over Jake Ferguson, 6.8 to 6.4 projected PPR points.