Start Josh Downs or Carnell Tate? Week 7

Updated Oct 19, 2:16 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Tate projects lower, 11.1 to 14.2, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 81 for Tate, 96 for Downs.

Start

Carnell Tate

WR · TEN · vs CLE

Market projects: 11.1; recent weeks avg
CLE D vs WR: 36.0; 10th most to WRs (2026)
Snap share: 82%; Through Week 6
Target share: 27%; Through Week 6

Sit

Josh Downs

WR · IND · at MIN

Market projects: 14.2; recent weeks avg
MIN D vs WR: 27.1; 5th fewest to WRs (2026)
Snap share: 80%; Through Week 6
Target share: 21%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Carnell Tate for Josh Downs?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Josh Downs projects 121 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (12.1 a game over 10 games), Carnell Tate 105 (10.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Carnell Tate over Josh Downs. So make the move after his Week 7 game.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Carnell Tate over Josh Downs in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Carnell Tate at 11.1 points and Josh Downs at 14.2, a gap of 3.1. Carnell Tate still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 81 against 96, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for Carnell Tate this week yet, so his 11.1 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (11.8 and 10.4); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Josh Downs this week yet, so his 14.2 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (16.3 and 12.0); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Josh Downs yet. His market-based projections were 16.3 and 12.0 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 14.2, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

No Week 7 player market is posted for Carnell Tate yet. His market-based projections were 11.8 and 10.4 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 11.1, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

That puts Josh Downs 3.1 points ahead of Carnell Tate on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Josh Downs and IND visit MIN on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

MIN allowed 27.1 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 5th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 133 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game against MIN.

Carnell Tate and TEN host CLE on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CLE allowed 36.0 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 10th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 165 yards and 1.4 touchdowns a game against CLE.

By points allowed to the position, Carnell Tate has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Josh Downs is not on the injury report.

Carnell Tate is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Josh Downs played 80 percent of IND snaps, drew 21 percent of the targets, earned 26 percent of the air yards and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

Josh Downs, Week 3 against HOU: 48 of 71 snaps, 11 targets and 5 catches for 77 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 4 against WAS: 51 of 66 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 16 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 5 against PIT: 60 of 71 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 47 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 6 against TEN: 1 carry for 7 yards, 8 targets and 4 catches for 40 yards.

Through Week 6, Carnell Tate played 82 percent of TEN snaps, drew 27 percent of the targets, earned 48 percent of the air yards and had 4 percent of the red zone chances.

Carnell Tate, Week 3 against NYG: 53 of 60 snaps, 9 targets and 6 catches for 58 yards.

Carnell Tate, Week 4 against BAL: 54 of 64 snaps, 12 targets and 9 catches for 145 yards.

Carnell Tate, Week 5 against HOU: 48 of 63 snaps, 5 targets and 1 catch for 6 yards.

Carnell Tate, Week 6 against IND: 7 targets and 6 catches for 70 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Josh Downs played 16 games for IND and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.

He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets and 422 air yards.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Carnell Tate for Josh Downs?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Josh Downs projects 121 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (12.1 a game over 10 games), Carnell Tate 105 (10.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Carnell Tate over Josh Downs. So make the move after his Week 7 game.
Should I drop Josh Downs for Carnell Tate?
No. Keep Josh Downs: he projects 121 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (12.1 a game over 10 games), Carnell Tate 105 (10.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Carnell Tate over Josh Downs.