Start Luther Burden III or Josh Downs? Week 7

Updated Oct 19, 9:51 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Burden projects lower, 12.7 to 14.2, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 51 for Burden, 96 for Downs.

Start

Luther Burden III

WR · CHI · vs NE

Market projects: 12.7; recent weeks avg
NE D vs WR: 31.4; 16th most to WRs (2026)

Sit

Josh Downs

WR · IND · at MIN

Market projects: 14.2; recent weeks avg
MIN D vs WR: 27.1; 5th fewest to WRs (2026)
Snap share: 80%; Through Week 6
Target share: 21%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Luther Burden III for Josh Downs?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Josh Downs projects 121 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (12.1 a game over 10 games), Luther Burden III 114 (11.4 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Luther Burden III over Josh Downs. So make the move after his Week 7 game.

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Luther Burden III rookie cards Josh Downs rookie cards

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Our Week 7 call

Start Luther Burden III over Josh Downs in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Luther Burden III at 12.7 points and Josh Downs at 14.2, a gap of 1.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Luther Burden III still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 51 against 96, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for Luther Burden III this week yet, so his 12.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (14.4 and 11.1); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Josh Downs this week yet, so his 14.2 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (16.3 and 12.0); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Josh Downs yet. His market-based projections were 16.3 and 12.0 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 14.2, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

No Week 7 player market is posted for Luther Burden III yet. His market-based projections were 14.4 and 11.1 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 12.7, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

That puts Josh Downs 1.4 points ahead of Luther Burden III on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Josh Downs and IND visit MIN on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

MIN allowed 27.1 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 5th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 133 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game against MIN.

Luther Burden III and CHI host NE on Thursday at 8:15 PM ET.

NE allowed 31.4 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 16th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 138 yards and a touchdown a game against NE.

By points allowed to the position, Luther Burden III has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Josh Downs is not on the injury report.

Luther Burden III is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Josh Downs played 80 percent of IND snaps, drew 21 percent of the targets, earned 26 percent of the air yards and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

Josh Downs, Week 3 against HOU: 48 of 71 snaps, 11 targets and 5 catches for 77 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 4 against WAS: 51 of 66 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 16 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 5 against PIT: 60 of 71 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 47 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 6 against TEN: 1 carry for 7 yards, 8 targets and 4 catches for 40 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Josh Downs played 16 games for IND and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.

He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets and 422 air yards.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Luther Burden III played 15 games for CHI and scored 127.9 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR48.

He caught 47 of 60 targets for 652 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 4 red zone targets and 318 air yards.

He was on the field for 39 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Luther Burden III, Week 18 of 2025 against DET: 1 carry for 10 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 35 yards, 7.5 PPR points.

Luther Burden III, Week 17 of 2025 against SF: 38 of 66 snaps, 9 targets and 8 catches for 138 yards, 1 touchdown, 27.8 PPR points.

Luther Burden III, Week 15 of 2025 against CLE: 26 of 66 snaps, 7 targets and 6 catches for 84 yards, 14.4 PPR points.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Luther Burden III for Josh Downs?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Josh Downs projects 121 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (12.1 a game over 10 games), Luther Burden III 114 (11.4 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Luther Burden III over Josh Downs. So make the move after his Week 7 game.
Should I drop Josh Downs for Luther Burden III?
No. Keep Josh Downs: he projects 121 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (12.1 a game over 10 games), Luther Burden III 114 (11.4 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Luther Burden III over Josh Downs.