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Start Josh Downs or DK Metcalf? Week 7

Updated Oct 19, 2:16 PM ET.

Early kickoff: 9:30 AM ET, set your lineup before then.

Start DK Metcalf over Josh Downs

Metcalf projects lower, 13.2 to 14.2, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 66 for Metcalf, 96 for Downs.

Start

DK Metcalf

WR · PIT · at NO

Market projects
13.2
recent weeks avg
NO D vs WR
29.9
12th fewest to WRs (2026)
Snap share
95%
Through Week 6
Target share
24%
Through Week 6
Sit

Josh Downs

WR · IND · at MIN

Market projects
14.2
recent weeks avg
MIN D vs WR
27.1
5th fewest to WRs (2026)
Snap share
80%
Through Week 6
Target share
21%
Through Week 6

Should I drop DK Metcalf for Josh Downs?

Not on these numbers alone. DK Metcalf projects 115 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (11.5 a game over 10 games) and Josh Downs 121 (12.1 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts DK Metcalf over Josh Downs.

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Our Week 7 call

Start DK Metcalf over Josh Downs in Week 7.

Market-based projections have DK Metcalf at 13.2 points and Josh Downs at 14.2, a gap of 1.0. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. DK Metcalf still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 66 against 96, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for DK Metcalf this week yet, so his 13.2 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (14.2 and 12.1); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Josh Downs this week yet, so his 14.2 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (16.3 and 12.0); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Josh Downs yet. His market-based projections were 16.3 and 12.0 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 14.2, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

No Week 7 player market is posted for DK Metcalf yet. His market-based projections were 14.2 and 12.1 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 13.2, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

That puts Josh Downs 1.0 points ahead of DK Metcalf on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Josh Downs and IND visit MIN on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

MIN allowed 27.1 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 5th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 133 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game against MIN.

DK Metcalf and PIT visit NO on Sunday at 9:30 AM ET.

NO allowed 29.9 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 12th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 130 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against NO.

By points allowed to the position, DK Metcalf has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Josh Downs is not on the injury report.

DK Metcalf is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Josh Downs played 80 percent of IND snaps, drew 21 percent of the targets, earned 26 percent of the air yards and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

Josh Downs, Week 3 against HOU: 48 of 71 snaps, 11 targets and 5 catches for 77 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 4 against WAS: 51 of 66 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 16 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 5 against PIT: 60 of 71 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 47 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 6 against TEN: 1 carry for 7 yards, 8 targets and 4 catches for 40 yards.

Through Week 6, DK Metcalf played 95 percent of PIT snaps, drew 24 percent of the targets, earned 35 percent of the air yards and had 8 percent of the red zone chances.

DK Metcalf, Week 3 against CIN: 59 of 62 snaps, 5 targets and 3 catches for 31 yards, 1 touchdown.

DK Metcalf, Week 4 against CLE: 70 of 72 snaps, 9 targets and 5 catches for 115 yards.

DK Metcalf, Week 5 against IND: 55 of 60 snaps, 1 carry for 11 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 12 yards.

DK Metcalf, Week 6 against TB: 15 targets and 11 catches for 93 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Josh Downs played 16 games for IND and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.

He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets and 422 air yards.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, DK Metcalf played 15 games for PIT and scored 187.2 PPR points, 12.5 a game, finishing WR26.

He caught 59 of 99 targets for 850 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 13 red zone targets and 436 air yards.

He was on the field for 87 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop DK Metcalf for Josh Downs?

    Not on these numbers alone. DK Metcalf projects 115 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (11.5 a game over 10 games) and Josh Downs 121 (12.1 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts DK Metcalf over Josh Downs.

  • Should I drop Josh Downs for DK Metcalf?

    Not on these numbers alone. Josh Downs projects 121 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (12.1 a game over 10 games) and DK Metcalf 115 (11.5 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts DK Metcalf over Josh Downs.

Week 6 on the board

Elsewhere on the board