Start Christian Watson or Luther Burden III? Week 7

Updated Oct 19, 2:36 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Luther Burden III over Christian Watson

Start

Luther Burden III

WR · CHI · vs NE

Market projects: 12.7; recent weeks avg
NE D vs WR: 31.4; 16th most to WRs (2026)

Sit

Christian Watson

WR · GB · at DET

Market projects: 11.9; recent weeks avg
DET D vs WR: 41.0; 3rd most to WRs (2026)
Snap share: 79%; Through Week 6
Target share: 22%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Luther Burden III for Christian Watson?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Christian Watson projects 143 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.3 a game over 10 games), Luther Burden III 114 (11.4 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Luther Burden III over Christian Watson. So make the move after his Week 7 game.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Luther Burden III over Christian Watson in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Luther Burden III at 12.7 points and Christian Watson at 11.9, a gap of 0.9. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Luther Burden III this week yet, so his 12.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (14.4 and 11.1); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Christian Watson this week yet, so his 11.9 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (10.7 and 13.1); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take Luther Burden III at ADP 51 and Christian Watson at 58.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Luther Burden III yet. His market-based projections were 14.4 and 11.1 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 12.7, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

No Week 7 player market is posted for Christian Watson yet. His market-based projections were 10.7 and 13.1 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 11.9, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

That puts Luther Burden III 0.9 points ahead of Christian Watson on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Luther Burden III and CHI host NE on Thursday at 8:15 PM ET.

NE allowed 31.4 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 16th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 138 yards and a touchdown a game against NE.

Christian Watson and GB visit DET on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

DET allowed 41.0 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 3rd most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 195 yards and a touchdown a game against DET.

By points allowed to the position, Christian Watson has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Luther Burden III is not on the injury report.

Christian Watson is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Christian Watson played 79 percent of GB snaps, drew 22 percent of the targets, earned 33 percent of the air yards and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

Christian Watson, Week 3 against ATL: 53 of 66 snaps, 10 targets and 7 catches for 96 yards, 1 touchdown.

Christian Watson, Week 4 against TB: 41 of 60 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 47 yards.

Christian Watson, Week 5 against CHI: 49 of 61 snaps, 8 targets and 6 catches for 143 yards, 2 touchdowns.

Christian Watson, Week 6 against DAL: 8 targets and 3 catches for 64 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Luther Burden III played 15 games for CHI and scored 127.9 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR48.

He caught 47 of 60 targets for 652 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 4 red zone targets and 318 air yards.

He was on the field for 39 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Luther Burden III, Week 18 of 2025 against DET: 1 carry for 10 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 35 yards, 7.5 PPR points.

Luther Burden III, Week 17 of 2025 against SF: 38 of 66 snaps, 9 targets and 8 catches for 138 yards, 1 touchdown, 27.8 PPR points.

Luther Burden III, Week 15 of 2025 against CLE: 26 of 66 snaps, 7 targets and 6 catches for 84 yards, 14.4 PPR points.

In 2025, Christian Watson played 10 games for GB and scored 132.4 PPR points, 13.2 a game, finishing WR46.

He caught 35 of 55 targets for 611 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 493 air yards.

He was on the field for 68 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Luther Burden III for Christian Watson?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Christian Watson projects 143 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.3 a game over 10 games), Luther Burden III 114 (11.4 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Luther Burden III over Christian Watson. So make the move after his Week 7 game.
Should I drop Christian Watson for Luther Burden III?
No. Keep Christian Watson: he projects 143 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.3 a game over 10 games), Luther Burden III 114 (11.4 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Luther Burden III over Christian Watson.