Start C.J. Stroud or Joe Burrow? Week 7

Updated Oct 19, 2:21 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Burrow projects lower, 17.6 to 18.7, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 55 for Burrow, 185 for Stroud.

Start

Joe Burrow

QB · CIN · at BAL

Market projects: 17.6; recent weeks avg
BAL D vs QB: 16.5; 13th fewest to QBs (2026)
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 5

Sit

C.J. Stroud

QB · HOU · vs NYG

Market projects: 18.6; recent weeks avg
NYG D vs QB: 19.9; 9th most to QBs (2026)
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Should I drop C.J. Stroud for Joe Burrow?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Joe Burrow projects 186 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.9 a game over 11 games), C.J. Stroud 165 (16.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Joe Burrow over C.J. Stroud.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Joe Burrow over C.J. Stroud in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Joe Burrow at 17.6 points and C.J. Stroud at 18.6, a gap of 1.1. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Joe Burrow still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 55 against 185, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for Joe Burrow this week yet, so his 17.6 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (17.6 and 17.6); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for C.J. Stroud this week yet, so his 18.6 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (23.2 and 14.1); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for C.J. Stroud yet. His market-based projections were 23.2 and 14.1 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 18.7, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

No Week 7 player market is posted for Joe Burrow yet. His market-based projections were 17.6 and 17.6 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 17.6, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

That puts C.J. Stroud 1.1 points ahead of Joe Burrow on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

C.J. Stroud and HOU host NYG on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

NYG allowed 19.9 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 9th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 210 yards and 1.8 touchdowns a game against NYG, with 1.2 interceptions.

Joe Burrow and CIN visit BAL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

BAL allowed 16.5 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 13th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 238 yards and a touchdown a game against BAL, with 0.6 interceptions.

By points allowed to the position, C.J. Stroud has the softer matchup.

Injury status

C.J. Stroud is not on the injury report.

Joe Burrow is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, C.J. Stroud played 100 percent of HOU snaps, dropped back 237 times and threw an average of 9.5 air yards per attempt.

C.J. Stroud, Week 3 against IND: 54 of 54 snaps, 16 of 27 passes for 167 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 10 yards.

C.J. Stroud, Week 4 against DAL: 55 of 55 snaps, 21 of 29 passes for 347 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 12 yards.

C.J. Stroud, Week 5 against TEN: 66 of 66 snaps, 26 of 34 passes for 261 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 7 yards.

C.J. Stroud, Week 6 against JAX: 63 of 63 snaps, 24 of 34 passes for 312 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 5 yards.

Through Week 5, Joe Burrow played 100 percent of CIN snaps, dropped back 204 times and threw an average of 7.2 air yards per attempt.

Joe Burrow, Week 2 against HOU: 60 of 60 snaps, 20 of 31 passes for 207 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Joe Burrow, Week 3 against PIT: 57 of 57 snaps, 28 of 37 passes for 282 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 13 yards.

Joe Burrow, Week 4 against JAX: 76 of 76 snaps, 39 of 54 passes for 428 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 6 yards.

Joe Burrow, Week 5 against MIA: 65 of 65 snaps, 23 of 32 passes for 190 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 12 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, C.J. Stroud played 14 games for HOU and scored 216.5 PPR points, 15.5 a game, finishing QB21.

He completed 273 of 423 passes for 3041 yards, 19 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran 48 times for 209 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 93 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Joe Burrow played 8 games for CIN and scored 139.5 PPR points, 17.4 a game, finishing QB29.

He completed 173 of 259 passes for 1809 yards, 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and ran 14 times for 41 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop C.J. Stroud for Joe Burrow?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Joe Burrow projects 186 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.9 a game over 11 games), C.J. Stroud 165 (16.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Joe Burrow over C.J. Stroud.
Should I drop Joe Burrow for C.J. Stroud?
No. Keep Joe Burrow: he projects 186 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.9 a game over 11 games), C.J. Stroud 165 (16.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Joe Burrow over C.J. Stroud.