Should I drop Joe Burrow for Dak Prescott?

Not on these numbers alone. Joe Burrow projects 189 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 11 games) and Dak Prescott 182 (18.2 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Joe Burrow over Dak Prescott.

Start Dak Prescott or Joe Burrow? Week 7

Updated Oct 21, 2:46 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Joe Burrow over Dak Prescott

Burrow projects lower, 18.7 to 19.1, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 55 for Burrow, 64 for Prescott.

Start

Joe Burrow

QB · CIN · at BAL

Market projects: 18.7; fantasy pts
BAL D vs QB: 15.4; 11th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 39 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 5

Sit

Dak Prescott

QB · DAL · at PHI

Market projects: 19.1; fantasy pts
PHI D vs QB: 19.4; 9th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: High; 100 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Dak Prescott for Joe Burrow?

Not on these numbers alone. Dak Prescott projects 182 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (18.2 a game over 10 games) and Joe Burrow 189 (17.2 a game over 11 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Joe Burrow over Dak Prescott.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Joe Burrow over Dak Prescott in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Joe Burrow at 18.7 points and Dak Prescott at 19.1, a gap of 0.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Joe Burrow still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 55 against 64, and that outweighs a gap this size. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Market coverage on Joe Burrow is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 19.1 fantasy points for Dak Prescott, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Dak Prescott is 267 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (8, 9 and 11 market sources).

Player markets imply 18.7 fantasy points for Joe Burrow, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Joe Burrow is 262 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.1 rushing touchdowns (7, 10 and 9 market sources).

That puts Dak Prescott 0.4 points ahead of Joe Burrow on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Dak Prescott and DAL visit PHI on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

PHI allowed 19.4 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 9th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 254 yards and 1.3 touchdowns a game against PHI, with 0.5 interceptions a game.

Joe Burrow and CIN visit BAL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

BAL allowed 15.4 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 11th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 226 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against BAL, with 0.5 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Dak Prescott has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Dak Prescott is not on the injury report.

Joe Burrow is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Dak Prescott played 100 percent of DAL snaps, dropped back 265 times and threw an average of 7.4 air yards per attempt.

Dak Prescott, Week 3 against BAL: 74 of 74 snaps, 25 of 40 passes for 276 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 19 yards.

Dak Prescott, Week 4 against HOU: 78 of 78 snaps, 32 of 45 passes for 335 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 7 yards.

Dak Prescott, Week 5 against TB: 60 of 60 snaps, 24 of 42 passes for 316 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions.

Dak Prescott, Week 6 against GB: 78 of 78 snaps, 34 of 54 passes for 258 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 2 carries for 7 yards.

Through Week 5, Joe Burrow played 100 percent of CIN snaps, dropped back 204 times and threw an average of 7.2 air yards per attempt.

Joe Burrow, Week 2 against HOU: 60 of 60 snaps, 20 of 31 passes for 207 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Joe Burrow, Week 3 against PIT: 57 of 57 snaps, 28 of 37 passes for 282 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 13 yards.

Joe Burrow, Week 4 against JAX: 76 of 76 snaps, 39 of 54 passes for 428 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 6 yards.

Joe Burrow, Week 5 against MIA: 65 of 65 snaps, 23 of 32 passes for 190 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 12 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Dak Prescott played 17 games for DAL and scored 323.8 PPR points, 19.0 a game, finishing QB6.

He completed 404 of 600 passes for 4552 yards, 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and ran 53 times for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Joe Burrow played 8 games for CIN and scored 139.5 PPR points, 17.4 a game, finishing QB29.

He completed 173 of 259 passes for 1809 yards, 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and ran 14 times for 41 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Dak Prescott for Joe Burrow?
Not on these numbers alone. Dak Prescott projects 182 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (18.2 a game over 10 games) and Joe Burrow 189 (17.2 a game over 11 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Joe Burrow over Dak Prescott.
Should I drop Joe Burrow for Dak Prescott?
Not on these numbers alone. Joe Burrow projects 189 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 11 games) and Dak Prescott 182 (18.2 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Joe Burrow over Dak Prescott.