Start Joe Burrow or Brock Purdy? Week 7

Updated Oct 21, 2:46 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Joe Burrow over Brock Purdy

Start

Joe Burrow

QB · CIN · at BAL

Market projects: 18.7; fantasy pts
BAL D vs QB: 15.4; 11th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 44 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 5

Sit

Brock Purdy

QB · SF · at ATL

Market projects: 18.4; fantasy pts
ATL D vs QB: 18.7; 12th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: High; 88 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Brock Purdy for Joe Burrow?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Joe Burrow projects 189 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 11 games), Brock Purdy 175 (17.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Joe Burrow over Brock Purdy, 18.7 to 18.4 projected PPR points.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Joe Burrow over Brock Purdy in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Joe Burrow at 18.7 points and Brock Purdy at 18.4, a gap of 0.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Joe Burrow's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Drafters take Joe Burrow at ADP 55 and Brock Purdy at 86. Market coverage on Joe Burrow is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 18.7 fantasy points for Joe Burrow, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Joe Burrow is 261 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.1 rushing touchdowns (10, 11 and 9 market sources).

Player markets imply 18.4 fantasy points for Brock Purdy, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Brock Purdy is 242 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 19 rushing yards and 0.3 rushing touchdowns (7, 8, 6 and 8 market sources).

That puts Joe Burrow 0.2 points ahead of Brock Purdy on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Joe Burrow and CIN visit BAL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

BAL allowed 15.4 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 11th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 226 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against BAL, with 0.5 interceptions a game.

Brock Purdy and SF visit ATL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

ATL allowed 18.7 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 12th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 269 yards and 1.7 touchdowns a game against ATL, with 0.2 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Brock Purdy has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Joe Burrow is not on the injury report.

Brock Purdy is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 5, Joe Burrow played 100 percent of CIN snaps, dropped back 204 times and threw an average of 7.2 air yards per attempt.

Joe Burrow, Week 2 against HOU: 60 of 60 snaps, 20 of 31 passes for 207 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Joe Burrow, Week 3 against PIT: 57 of 57 snaps, 28 of 37 passes for 282 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 13 yards.

Joe Burrow, Week 4 against JAX: 76 of 76 snaps, 39 of 54 passes for 428 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 6 yards.

Joe Burrow, Week 5 against MIA: 65 of 65 snaps, 23 of 32 passes for 190 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 12 yards.

Through Week 6, Brock Purdy played 98 percent of SF snaps, dropped back 190 times and threw an average of 8.0 air yards per attempt.

Brock Purdy, Week 3 against ARI: 54 of 54 snaps, 15 of 27 passes for 297 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 35 yards.

Brock Purdy, Week 4 against DEN: 66 of 66 snaps, 19 of 29 passes for 218 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 31 yards.

Brock Purdy, Week 5 against SEA: 60 of 60 snaps, 19 of 29 passes for 189 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 3 carries for 8 yards.

Brock Purdy, Week 6 against WAS: 62 of 62 snaps, 21 of 29 passes for 264 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 5 carries for 28 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Joe Burrow played 8 games for CIN and scored 139.5 PPR points, 17.4 a game, finishing QB29.

He completed 173 of 259 passes for 1809 yards, 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and ran 14 times for 41 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Brock Purdy played 9 games for SF and scored 187.4 PPR points, 20.8 a game, finishing QB24.

He completed 197 of 284 passes for 2167 yards, 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and ran 33 times for 147 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Brock Purdy for Joe Burrow?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Joe Burrow projects 189 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 11 games), Brock Purdy 175 (17.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Joe Burrow over Brock Purdy, 18.7 to 18.4 projected PPR points.
Should I drop Joe Burrow for Brock Purdy?
No. Keep Joe Burrow: he projects 189 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 11 games), Brock Purdy 175 (17.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Joe Burrow over Brock Purdy, 18.7 to 18.4 projected PPR points.