Start Deshaun Watson or Geno Smith? Week 7

Updated Oct 19, 2:31 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Deshaun Watson over Geno Smith

Start

Deshaun Watson

QB · CLE · at TEN

Market projects: 14.8; recent weeks avg
TEN D vs QB: 15.5; 11th fewest to QBs (2026)
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Sit

Geno Smith

QB · NYJ · vs MIA

Market projects: 14.7; recent weeks avg
MIA D vs QB: 19.4; 10th most to QBs (2026)
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Geno Smith for Deshaun Watson?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Deshaun Watson projects 164 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.4 a game over 10 games), Geno Smith 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Deshaun Watson over Geno Smith.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Deshaun Watson over Geno Smith in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Deshaun Watson at 14.8 points and Geno Smith at 14.7, a gap of 0.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Deshaun Watson this week yet, so his 14.8 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (13.4 and 16.3); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Geno Smith this week yet, so his 14.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (15.2 and 14.2); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Deshaun Watson yet. His market-based projections were 13.4 and 16.3 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 14.8, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

No Week 7 player market is posted for Geno Smith yet. His market-based projections were 15.2 and 14.2 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 14.7, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

That puts Deshaun Watson 0.2 points ahead of Geno Smith on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Deshaun Watson and CLE visit TEN on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

TEN allowed 15.5 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 11th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 229 yards and a touchdown a game against TEN, with 0.4 interceptions.

Geno Smith and NYJ host MIA on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

MIA allowed 19.4 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 10th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 226 yards and 2.2 touchdowns a game against MIA, with 0.6 interceptions.

By points allowed to the position, Geno Smith has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Deshaun Watson is not on the injury report.

Geno Smith is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Deshaun Watson played 100 percent of CLE snaps, dropped back 220 times and threw an average of 7.3 air yards per attempt.

Deshaun Watson, Week 3 against CAR: 69 of 70 snaps, 16 of 30 passes for 144 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 9 carries for 47 yards.

Deshaun Watson, Week 4 against PIT: 64 of 64 snaps, 24 of 33 passes for 268 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 5 carries for 24 yards.

Deshaun Watson, Week 5 against NYJ: 68 of 68 snaps, 15 of 33 passes for 155 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 6 carries for 40 yards.

Deshaun Watson, Week 6 against BAL: 16 of 26 passes for 164 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 8 carries for 29 yards.

Through Week 6, Geno Smith played 100 percent of NYJ snaps, dropped back 204 times and threw an average of 7.1 air yards per attempt.

Geno Smith, Week 3 against DET: 66 of 66 snaps, 31 of 37 passes for 321 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 12 yards.

Geno Smith, Week 4 against CHI: 32 of 32 snaps, 8 of 15 passes for 119 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions.

Geno Smith, Week 5 against CLE: 70 of 70 snaps, 17 of 30 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 9 yards.

Geno Smith, Week 6 against NE: 20 of 30 passes for 252 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 1 carry for 0 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Geno Smith played 15 games for LV and scored 190.9 PPR points, 12.7 a game, finishing QB23.

He completed 302 of 448 passes for 3025 yards, 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, and ran 41 times for 109 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Geno Smith for Deshaun Watson?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Deshaun Watson projects 164 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.4 a game over 10 games), Geno Smith 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Deshaun Watson over Geno Smith.
Should I drop Deshaun Watson for Geno Smith?
No. Keep Deshaun Watson: he projects 164 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.4 a game over 10 games), Geno Smith 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Deshaun Watson over Geno Smith.