Start Bo Nix or Geno Smith? Week 7

Updated Oct 19, 2:16 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Bo Nix over Geno Smith

Start

Bo Nix

QB · DEN · at ARI

Market projects: 16.2; recent weeks avg
ARI D vs QB: 23.2; 3rd most to QBs (2026)
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Sit

Geno Smith

QB · NYJ · vs MIA

Market projects: 14.7; recent weeks avg
MIA D vs QB: 19.4; 10th most to QBs (2026)
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Geno Smith for Bo Nix?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Bo Nix projects 163 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.3 a game over 10 games), Geno Smith 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Bo Nix over Geno Smith.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Bo Nix over Geno Smith in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Bo Nix at 16.2 points and Geno Smith at 14.7, a gap of 1.5. No player market is posted for Bo Nix this week yet, so his 16.2 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (16.0 and 16.3); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Geno Smith this week yet, so his 14.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (15.2 and 14.2); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Bo Nix yet. His market-based projections were 16.0 and 16.3 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 16.2, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

No Week 7 player market is posted for Geno Smith yet. His market-based projections were 15.2 and 14.2 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 14.7, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

That puts Bo Nix 1.5 points ahead of Geno Smith on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Bo Nix and DEN visit ARI on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

ARI allowed 23.2 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 3rd most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 252 yards and 2.8 touchdowns a game against ARI, with 0.6 interceptions.

Geno Smith and NYJ host MIA on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

MIA allowed 19.4 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 10th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 226 yards and 2.2 touchdowns a game against MIA, with 0.6 interceptions.

By points allowed to the position, Bo Nix has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Bo Nix is not on the injury report.

Geno Smith is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Bo Nix played 100 percent of DEN snaps, dropped back 202 times and threw an average of 4.9 air yards per attempt.

Bo Nix, Week 3 against LAR: 67 of 67 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 186 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 4 carries for 7 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 4 against SF: 65 of 65 snaps, 25 of 42 passes for 214 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 10 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 5 against LAC: 62 of 62 snaps, 16 of 27 passes for 123 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 10 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 6 against SEA: 60 of 60 snaps, 17 of 27 passes for 107 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 3 yards.

Through Week 6, Geno Smith played 100 percent of NYJ snaps, dropped back 204 times and threw an average of 7.1 air yards per attempt.

Geno Smith, Week 3 against DET: 66 of 66 snaps, 31 of 37 passes for 321 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 12 yards.

Geno Smith, Week 4 against CHI: 32 of 32 snaps, 8 of 15 passes for 119 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions.

Geno Smith, Week 5 against CLE: 70 of 70 snaps, 17 of 30 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 9 yards.

Geno Smith, Week 6 against NE: 20 of 30 passes for 252 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 1 carry for 0 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Bo Nix played 17 games for DEN and scored 315.8 PPR points, 18.6 a game, finishing QB7.

He completed 388 of 612 passes for 3931 yards, 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 356 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 100 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Geno Smith played 15 games for LV and scored 190.9 PPR points, 12.7 a game, finishing QB23.

He completed 302 of 448 passes for 3025 yards, 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, and ran 41 times for 109 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Geno Smith for Bo Nix?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Bo Nix projects 163 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.3 a game over 10 games), Geno Smith 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Bo Nix over Geno Smith.
Should I drop Bo Nix for Geno Smith?
No. Keep Bo Nix: he projects 163 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.3 a game over 10 games), Geno Smith 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Bo Nix over Geno Smith.