Geno Smith or Deshaun Watson: who to draft first
Both players' season price from the sportsbooks, their usage this season and their last full season's numbers, with the draft market's own figures wherever it still has them.
Updated Sep 19, 2026 at 10:06 AM ET
The sportsbooks price Geno Smith 2.1 points a game ahead of Deshaun Watson this season, and that is the order this page leads on. Neither is in the consensus draft sample any more, so there is no current draft order to give between them: the books' price is the live market on these two.
More fantasy football tools and rankings, all priced from the same board.
QB22 · NYJ · bye 13
2025 vs pass yds line 5-10
- Books price
- 14.5 pts a game
- Draft pick
- no consensus
QB24 · CLE · bye 11
- Books price
- 12.4 pts a game
- Draft pick
- no consensus
The gap
- Pick differencenot comparable without a consensus on both
- Price difference2.1 points a game
- Board size242 draftable players
Consensus average draft position has stopped updating on these two, so the figures that depend on it are left out rather than printed stale. The verdict line above restates the sportsbooks' price and nothing else.
What the sportsbooks price
The player markets price Geno Smith at 14.5 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 18 books. That is the 45th highest figure of the 182 players the books price.
The player markets price Deshaun Watson at 12.4 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 18 books. That is the 62nd highest figure of the 182 players the books price.
Where the draft room stands
Drafters have formed no consensus on Geno Smith: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 131st overall on the rest of his evidence.
In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 122.
Drafters have formed no consensus on Deshaun Watson: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 148th overall on the rest of his evidence.
In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 166.
This season through Week 1
Through Week 1, Geno Smith has been on the field for 100 percent of NYJ snaps, dropped back 26 times and thrown 7.0 air yards an attempt.
He has been sacked or hit on 1 of 26 dropbacks and scrambled 2 times.
In Week 1 against TEN he completed 19 of 24 passes for 215 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 3 times for 10 yards.
Through Week 1, Deshaun Watson has been on the field for 100 percent of CLE snaps, dropped back 30 times and thrown 10.4 air yards an attempt.
He has been sacked or hit on 9 of 30 dropbacks and scrambled 3 times.
In Week 1 against JAX he completed 16 of 22 passes for 205 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception and ran 6 times for 38 yards.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025 Geno Smith played 15 games and scored 190.9 PPR points, 12.7 a game, finishing QB23.
He threw for 3025 yards on 448 attempts with 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, and ran for 109 yards and 0 touchdowns.
That came to 29.9 attempts a game at 6.8 yards an attempt.
He was on the field for 97 percent of the snaps in the games he played.
The season feed carries no line for Deshaun Watson in the last completed season.
Head to head
Their snap share this season is the same, 100 percent each.
Their target share this season is the same, 0 percent each.
Byes and availability
Geno Smith is off in Week 13 and Deshaun Watson in Week 11, so either can cover the other's bye.
What would change the answer
2.1 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.
The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.
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