Start DeVonta Smith or Michael Wilson? Week 7

Updated Oct 20, 3:46 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Smith projects lower, 13.5 to 14.5, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 34 for Smith, 77 for Wilson.

Start

DeVonta Smith

WR · PHI · vs DAL

Market projects: 13.5; recent weeks avg
DAL D vs WR: 36.2; 7th most to WRs (2026)
Upside: High; 88 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 86%; Through Week 6
Target share: 33%; Through Week 6

Sit

Michael Wilson

WR · ARI · vs DEN

Market projects: 14.5; recent weeks avg
DEN D vs WR: 29.3; 7th fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 43 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 90%; Through Week 6
Target share: 25%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Michael Wilson for DeVonta Smith?

Yes, on the rest of the season. DeVonta Smith projects 143 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.3 a game over 10 games), Michael Wilson 78 (7.8 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts DeVonta Smith over Michael Wilson.

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Our Week 7 call

Start DeVonta Smith over Michael Wilson in Week 7.

Market-based projections have DeVonta Smith at 13.5 points and Michael Wilson at 14.5, a gap of 1.0. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. DeVonta Smith still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 34 against 77, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for DeVonta Smith this week yet, so his 13.5 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 6 (14.9 and 12.2); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Michael Wilson this week yet, so his 14.5 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4, 5 and 6 (13.4, 16.7 and 13.4); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Michael Wilson yet. His market-based projections were 13.4, 16.7 and 13.4 points in Weeks 4, 5 and 6, an average of 14.5, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

No Week 7 player market is posted for DeVonta Smith yet. His market-based projections were 14.9 and 12.2 points in Weeks 4 and 6, an average of 13.5, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

The market-based projection for DeVonta Smith is 0-1 touchdowns (11 market sources).

That puts Michael Wilson 1.0 points ahead of DeVonta Smith on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Michael Wilson and ARI host DEN on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

DEN allowed 29.3 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 7th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 142 yards and 0-1 touchdowns a game against DEN.

DeVonta Smith and PHI host DAL on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

DAL allowed 36.2 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 7th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 169 yards and a touchdown a game against DAL.

By points allowed to the position, DeVonta Smith has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Michael Wilson is not on the injury report.

DeVonta Smith is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Michael Wilson played 90 percent of ARI snaps, drew 25 percent of the targets, earned 38 percent of the air yards and had 13 percent of the red zone chances.

Michael Wilson, Week 3 against SF: 81 of 87 snaps, 17 targets and 11 catches for 89 yards, 1 touchdown.

Michael Wilson, Week 4 against NYG: 62 of 66 snaps, 13 targets and 7 catches for 95 yards.

Michael Wilson, Week 5 against DET: 61 of 73 snaps, 7 targets and 4 catches for 30 yards.

Michael Wilson, Week 6 against LAR: 66 of 72 snaps, 7 targets and 4 catches for 32 yards.

Through Week 6, DeVonta Smith played 86 percent of PHI snaps, drew 33 percent of the targets, earned 49 percent of the air yards and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

DeVonta Smith, Week 1 against WAS: 52 of 55 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 53 yards.

DeVonta Smith, Week 2 against TEN: 67 of 76 snaps, 13 targets and 10 catches for 117 yards, 1 touchdown.

DeVonta Smith, Week 3 against CHI: 50 of 50 snaps, 8 targets and 6 catches for 65 yards.

DeVonta Smith, Week 6 against CAR: 42 of 64 snaps, 14 targets and 7 catches for 75 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Michael Wilson played 17 games for ARI and scored 220.6 PPR points, 13.0 a game, finishing WR10.

He caught 78 of 126 targets for 1006 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 15 red zone targets and 733 air yards.

He was on the field for 81 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, DeVonta Smith played 17 games for PHI and scored 201.8 PPR points, 11.9 a game, finishing WR20.

He caught 77 of 113 targets for 1008 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 10 red zone targets and 715 air yards.

He was on the field for 89 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Michael Wilson for DeVonta Smith?
Yes, on the rest of the season. DeVonta Smith projects 143 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.3 a game over 10 games), Michael Wilson 78 (7.8 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts DeVonta Smith over Michael Wilson.
Should I drop DeVonta Smith for Michael Wilson?
No. Keep DeVonta Smith: he projects 143 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.3 a game over 10 games), Michael Wilson 78 (7.8 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts DeVonta Smith over Michael Wilson.