Should I drop DK Metcalf for Luther Burden III?

Not on these numbers alone. DK Metcalf projects 115 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (11.5 a game over 10 games) and Luther Burden III 114 (11.4 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Luther Burden III over DK Metcalf.

Start Luther Burden III or DK Metcalf? Week 7

Updated Oct 19, 3:01 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Early kickoff: 9:30 AM ET, set your lineup before then.

Start Luther Burden III over DK Metcalf

Burden projects lower, 12.7 to 13.2, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 51 for Burden, 66 for Metcalf.

Start

Luther Burden III

WR · CHI · vs NE

Market projects: 12.7; recent weeks avg
NE D vs WR: 31.4; 16th most to WRs (2026)

Sit

DK Metcalf

WR · PIT · at NO

Market projects: 13.2; recent weeks avg
NO D vs WR: 29.9; 12th fewest to WRs (2026)
Snap share: 95%; Through Week 6
Target share: 24%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Luther Burden III for DK Metcalf?

Not on these numbers alone. Luther Burden III projects 114 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (11.4 a game over 10 games) and DK Metcalf 115 (11.5 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Luther Burden III over DK Metcalf.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Luther Burden III over DK Metcalf in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Luther Burden III at 12.7 points and DK Metcalf at 13.2, a gap of 0.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Luther Burden III still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 51 against 66, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for Luther Burden III this week yet, so his 12.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (14.4 and 11.1); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for DK Metcalf this week yet, so his 13.2 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (14.2 and 12.1); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for DK Metcalf yet. His market-based projections were 14.2 and 12.1 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 13.2, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

No Week 7 player market is posted for Luther Burden III yet. His market-based projections were 14.4 and 11.1 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 12.7, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

That puts DK Metcalf 0.4 points ahead of Luther Burden III on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

DK Metcalf and PIT visit NO on Sunday at 9:30 AM ET.

NO allowed 29.9 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 12th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 130 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against NO.

Luther Burden III and CHI host NE on Thursday at 8:15 PM ET.

NE allowed 31.4 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 16th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 138 yards and a touchdown a game against NE.

By points allowed to the position, Luther Burden III has the softer matchup.

Injury status

DK Metcalf is not on the injury report.

Luther Burden III is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, DK Metcalf played 95 percent of PIT snaps, drew 24 percent of the targets, earned 35 percent of the air yards and had 8 percent of the red zone chances.

DK Metcalf, Week 3 against CIN: 59 of 62 snaps, 5 targets and 3 catches for 31 yards, 1 touchdown.

DK Metcalf, Week 4 against CLE: 70 of 72 snaps, 9 targets and 5 catches for 115 yards.

DK Metcalf, Week 5 against IND: 55 of 60 snaps, 1 carry for 11 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 12 yards.

DK Metcalf, Week 6 against TB: 15 targets and 11 catches for 93 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, DK Metcalf played 15 games for PIT and scored 187.2 PPR points, 12.5 a game, finishing WR26.

He caught 59 of 99 targets for 850 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 13 red zone targets and 436 air yards.

He was on the field for 87 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Luther Burden III played 15 games for CHI and scored 127.9 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR48.

He caught 47 of 60 targets for 652 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 4 red zone targets and 318 air yards.

He was on the field for 39 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Luther Burden III, Week 18 of 2025 against DET: 1 carry for 10 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 35 yards, 7.5 PPR points.

Luther Burden III, Week 17 of 2025 against SF: 38 of 66 snaps, 9 targets and 8 catches for 138 yards, 1 touchdown, 27.8 PPR points.

Luther Burden III, Week 15 of 2025 against CLE: 26 of 66 snaps, 7 targets and 6 catches for 84 yards, 14.4 PPR points.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Luther Burden III for DK Metcalf?
Not on these numbers alone. Luther Burden III projects 114 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (11.4 a game over 10 games) and DK Metcalf 115 (11.5 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Luther Burden III over DK Metcalf.
Should I drop DK Metcalf for Luther Burden III?
Not on these numbers alone. DK Metcalf projects 115 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (11.5 a game over 10 games) and Luther Burden III 114 (11.4 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Luther Burden III over DK Metcalf.