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Start Efton Chism III or Jalen Nailor? Week 10

Updated Nov 10, 3:11 PM ET.

Early kickoff: 9:30 AM ET in Munich, set your lineup before then.

Start Efton Chism III over Jalen Nailor

Start

Efton Chism III

WR · NE · at DET

Market projects
5.7
recent weeks avg
DET D vs WR
37.7
2nd most to WRs (2026)
Upside
Rising
75 of 100 at WR
Snap share
67%
Through Week 9
Target share
13%
Through Week 9
Sit

Jalen Nailor

WR · LV · vs SEA

Market projects
4.7
recent weeks avg
SEA D vs WR
23.3
fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside
Limited
9 of 100 at WR
Snap share
56%
Through Week 9
Target share
10%
Through Week 9

Should I drop Efton Chism III for Jalen Nailor?

Not on these numbers alone. Efton Chism III projects 29 market-implied PPR points from Week 10 through Week 17 (4.2 a game over 7 games) and Jalen Nailor 31 (4.4 a game over 7 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 10 the call starts Efton Chism III over Jalen Nailor.

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Our Week 10 call

Start Efton Chism III over Jalen Nailor in Week 10.

Market-based projections have Efton Chism III at 5.7 points and Jalen Nailor at 4.7, a gap of 1.0. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Efton Chism III this week yet, so his 5.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 7, 8 and 9 (4.4, 6.8 and 5.8); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Jalen Nailor this week yet, so his 4.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 7, 8 and 9 (4.0, 4.3 and 5.7); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 10 player market is posted for Efton Chism III yet. His market-based projections were 4.4, 6.8 and 5.8 points in Weeks 7, 8 and 9, an average of 5.7, which stands in until his Week 10 market posts.

The market-based projection for Efton Chism III is 0.3 touchdowns (12 market sources).

No Week 10 player market is posted for Jalen Nailor yet. His market-based projections were 4.0, 4.3 and 5.7 points in Weeks 7, 8 and 9, an average of 4.7, which stands in until his Week 10 market posts.

That puts Efton Chism III 1.0 points ahead of Jalen Nailor on these projections.

Week 10 matchups

Efton Chism III and NE visit DET on Sunday at 9:30 AM ET.

DET allowed 37.7 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 7 games, the 2nd most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 176 yards and 0.9 touchdowns a game against DET.

Jalen Nailor and LV host SEA on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

SEA allowed 23.3 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 8 games, the fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 100 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game against SEA.

By points allowed to the position, Efton Chism III has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Efton Chism III is not on the injury report.

Jalen Nailor is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 10

Through Week 9, Efton Chism III played 67 percent of NE snaps, drew 13 percent of the targets, earned 9 percent of the air yards and had 23 percent of the red zone chances.

Efton Chism III, Week 7 against CHI: 34 of 54 snaps, 1 target and 1 catch for 16 yards.

Efton Chism III, Week 8 against MIA: 53 of 60 snaps, 5 targets and 5 catches for 37 yards.

Efton Chism III, Week 9 against GB: 32 of 63 snaps, 5 targets and 5 catches for 49 yards, 1 touchdown.

Through Week 9, Jalen Nailor played 56 percent of LV snaps, drew 10 percent of the targets, earned 14 percent of the air yards and had 5 percent of the red zone chances.

Jalen Nailor, Week 6 against BUF: 42 of 66 snaps, 4 targets and 1 catch for 9 yards.

Jalen Nailor, Week 7 against LAR: 51 of 68 snaps, 5 targets and 2 catches for 14 yards.

Jalen Nailor, Week 8 against NYJ: 29 of 63 snaps, 4 targets and 4 catches for 38 yards, 1 touchdown.

Jalen Nailor, Week 9 against SF: 37 of 50 snaps, 4 targets and 2 catches for 9 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Efton Chism III played 8 games for NE and scored 16.5 PPR points, 2.1 a game.

He caught 3 of 3 targets for 75 yards and 1 touchdown, with 1 red zone target and 35 air yards.

He was on the field for 14 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Jalen Nailor played 17 games for MIN and scored 100.7 PPR points, 5.9 a game, finishing WR61.

He caught 29 of 53 targets for 444 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 11 red zone targets and 332 air yards.

He was on the field for 65 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 10 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 10, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Efton Chism III for Jalen Nailor?

    Not on these numbers alone. Efton Chism III projects 29 market-implied PPR points from Week 10 through Week 17 (4.2 a game over 7 games) and Jalen Nailor 31 (4.4 a game over 7 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 10 the call starts Efton Chism III over Jalen Nailor.

  • Should I drop Jalen Nailor for Efton Chism III?

    Not on these numbers alone. Jalen Nailor projects 31 market-implied PPR points from Week 10 through Week 17 (4.4 a game over 7 games) and Efton Chism III 29 (4.2 a game over 7 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 10 the call starts Efton Chism III over Jalen Nailor.

Week 10 on the board

Elsewhere on the board