Start George Pickens or Josh Downs? Week 7

Updated Oct 20, 3:21 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start George Pickens over Josh Downs

Start

George Pickens

WR · DAL · at PHI

Market projects: 13.7; fantasy pts
PHI D vs WR: 38.3; 3rd most to WRs (2026)
Upside: High; 91 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 85%; Through Week 6
Target share: 22%; Through Week 6

Sit

Josh Downs

WR · IND · at MIN

Market projects: 13.5; recent weeks avg
MIN D vs WR: 27.1; 5th fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 45 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 81%; Through Week 6
Target share: 21%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Josh Downs for George Pickens?

Yes, on the rest of the season. George Pickens projects 142 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.2 a game over 10 games), Josh Downs 121 (12.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts George Pickens over Josh Downs.

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Our Week 7 call

Start George Pickens over Josh Downs in Week 7.

Market-based projections have George Pickens at 13.7 points and Josh Downs at 13.5, a gap of 0.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Josh Downs this week yet, so his 13.5 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4, 5 and 6 (16.3, 12.0 and 12.3); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take George Pickens at ADP 19 and Josh Downs at 96.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 13.7 fantasy points for George Pickens, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The market-based projection for George Pickens is 63 receiving yards, 4-5 receptions and 0-1 touchdowns (8, 6 and 11 market sources).

No Week 7 player market is posted for Josh Downs yet. His market-based projections were 16.3, 12.0 and 12.3 points in Weeks 4, 5 and 6, an average of 13.5, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

The market-based projection for Josh Downs is 0.2 touchdowns (7 market sources).

That puts George Pickens 0.2 points ahead of Josh Downs on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

George Pickens and DAL visit PHI on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

PHI allowed 38.3 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 3rd most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 181 yards and a touchdown a game against PHI.

Josh Downs and IND visit MIN on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

MIN allowed 27.1 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 5th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 133 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game against MIN.

By points allowed to the position, George Pickens has the softer matchup.

Injury status

George Pickens is not on the injury report.

Josh Downs is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, George Pickens played 85 percent of DAL snaps, drew 22 percent of the targets, earned 32 percent of the air yards and had 9 percent of the red zone chances.

George Pickens, Week 3 against BAL: 63 of 74 snaps, 11 targets and 7 catches for 82 yards.

George Pickens, Week 4 against HOU: 67 of 78 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 75 yards.

George Pickens, Week 5 against TB: 53 of 60 snaps, 13 targets and 9 catches for 130 yards, 1 touchdown.

George Pickens, Week 6 against GB: 69 of 78 snaps, 11 targets and 6 catches for 73 yards.

Through Week 6, Josh Downs played 81 percent of IND snaps, drew 21 percent of the targets, earned 26 percent of the air yards and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

Josh Downs, Week 3 against HOU: 48 of 71 snaps, 11 targets and 5 catches for 77 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 4 against WAS: 51 of 66 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 16 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 5 against PIT: 60 of 71 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 47 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 6 against TEN: 71 of 83 snaps, 1 carry for 7 yards, 8 targets and 4 catches for 40 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, George Pickens played 17 games for DAL and scored 291.9 PPR points, 17.2 a game, finishing WR5.

He caught 93 of 137 targets for 1429 yards and 9 touchdowns, with 21 red zone targets and 950 air yards.

He was on the field for 83 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Josh Downs played 16 games for IND and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.

He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets and 422 air yards.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Josh Downs for George Pickens?
Yes, on the rest of the season. George Pickens projects 142 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.2 a game over 10 games), Josh Downs 121 (12.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts George Pickens over Josh Downs.
Should I drop George Pickens for Josh Downs?
No. Keep George Pickens: he projects 142 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.2 a game over 10 games), Josh Downs 121 (12.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts George Pickens over Josh Downs.