Start Justin Jefferson or Zay Flowers? Week 7

Updated Oct 20, 3:21 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Justin Jefferson over Zay Flowers

Start

Justin Jefferson

WR · MIN · vs IND

Market projects: 15.6; fantasy pts
IND D vs WR: 30.8; 13th fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: High; 85 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 74%; Through Week 5
Target share: 25%; Through Week 5

Sit

Zay Flowers

WR · BAL · vs CIN

Market projects: 15.6; recent weeks avg
CIN D vs WR: 29.5; 9th fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: High; 89 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 61%; Through Week 6
Target share: 31%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Justin Jefferson for Zay Flowers?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Zay Flowers projects 148 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.8 a game over 10 games), Justin Jefferson 35 (3.2 a game over 11 games). For Week 7 the call starts Justin Jefferson over Zay Flowers. So make the move after his Week 7 game.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Justin Jefferson over Zay Flowers in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Justin Jefferson at 15.6 points and Zay Flowers at 15.6, a gap of 0.1. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Justin Jefferson still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 14 against 24, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for Zay Flowers this week yet, so his 15.6 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4, 5 and 6 (18.8, 14.6 and 13.4); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Zay Flowers yet. His market-based projections were 18.8, 14.6 and 13.5 points in Weeks 4, 5 and 6, an average of 15.6, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

The market-based projection for Zay Flowers is 0.6 touchdowns (9 market sources).

Player markets imply 15.6 fantasy points for Justin Jefferson, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The market-based projection for Justin Jefferson is 73 receiving yards, 5-6 receptions and 0-1 touchdowns (8, 6 and 10 market sources).

That puts Zay Flowers 0.1 points ahead of Justin Jefferson on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Zay Flowers and BAL host CIN on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CIN allowed 29.5 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 9th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 123 yards and a touchdown a game against CIN.

Justin Jefferson and MIN host IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

IND allowed 30.8 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 13th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 149 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against IND.

By points allowed to the position, Justin Jefferson has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Zay Flowers is not on the injury report.

Justin Jefferson is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Zay Flowers played 61 percent of BAL snaps, drew 31 percent of the targets, earned 35 percent of the air yards and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

Zay Flowers, Week 3 against DAL: 21 of 64 snaps, 1 carry for 20 yards, 6 targets and 5 catches for 84 yards.

Zay Flowers, Week 4 against TEN: 47 of 64 snaps, 10 targets and 8 catches for 118 yards, 1 touchdown.

Zay Flowers, Week 5 against ATL: 62 of 76 snaps, 1 carry for 13 yards, 9 targets and 8 catches for 53 yards.

Zay Flowers, Week 6 against CLE: 50 of 57 snaps, 1 carry for 1 yards, 11 targets and 6 catches for 66 yards.

Through Week 5, Justin Jefferson played 74 percent of MIN snaps, drew 25 percent of the targets, earned 35 percent of the air yards and had 15 percent of the red zone chances.

Justin Jefferson, Week 1 against GB: 60 of 65 snaps, 9 targets and 8 catches for 92 yards, 2 touchdowns.

Justin Jefferson, Week 2 against CHI: 52 of 52 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 55 yards.

Justin Jefferson, Week 3 against TB: 7 of 59 snaps, 2 targets and 2 catches for 32 yards.

Justin Jefferson, Week 5 against NO: 63 of 71 snaps, 1 carry for -11 yards, 7 targets and 6 catches for 79 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Zay Flowers played 17 games for BAL and scored 243.3 PPR points, 14.3 a game, finishing WR7.

He caught 86 of 118 targets for 1211 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 10 red zone targets and 753 air yards.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Justin Jefferson played 17 games for MIN and scored 201.5 PPR points, 11.9 a game, finishing WR21.

He caught 84 of 141 targets for 1048 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 17 red zone targets and 597 air yards.

He was on the field for 95 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Justin Jefferson for Zay Flowers?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Zay Flowers projects 148 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.8 a game over 10 games), Justin Jefferson 35 (3.2 a game over 11 games). For Week 7 the call starts Justin Jefferson over Zay Flowers. So make the move after his Week 7 game.
Should I drop Zay Flowers for Justin Jefferson?
No. Keep Zay Flowers: he projects 148 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.8 a game over 10 games), Justin Jefferson 35 (3.2 a game over 11 games). For Week 7 the call starts Justin Jefferson over Zay Flowers.