Start Rico Dowdle or Ty Johnson? Week 8

Updated Oct 27, 2:26 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Latest

Oct 21, 5:43 PM ET: Rico Dowdle: Listed Questionable (Knee) (Sleeper injury feed)

Start Rico Dowdle over Ty Johnson

Start

Rico Dowdle

RB · PIT · vs CLE

Market projects: 6.9; recent weeks avg
CLE D vs RB: 19.4; 8th fewest to RBs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 60 of 100 at RB
Snap share: 38%; Through Week 7
Target share: 12%; Through Week 7

Sit

Ty Johnson

RB · BUF · vs BAL

Market projects: 5.7; recent weeks avg
BAL D vs RB: 18.5; 5th fewest to RBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 18 of 100 at RB
Snap share: 23%; Through Week 6
Target share: 12%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Rico Dowdle for Ty Johnson?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Ty Johnson projects 43 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (4.3 a game over 10 games), Rico Dowdle 32 (3.6 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Rico Dowdle over Ty Johnson. So make the move after his Week 8 game.

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Our Week 8 call

Start Rico Dowdle over Ty Johnson in Week 8.

Market-based projections have Rico Dowdle at 6.9 points and Ty Johnson at 5.7, a gap of 1.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Rico Dowdle this week yet, so his 6.9 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 5, 6 and 7 (8.4, 5.6 and 6.7); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Ty Johnson this week yet, so his 5.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 5 and 6 (4.3 and 7.0); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 8 player market is posted for Rico Dowdle yet. His market-based projections were 8.4, 5.6 and 6.7 points in Weeks 5, 6 and 7, an average of 6.9, which stands in until his Week 8 market posts.

No Week 8 player market is posted for Ty Johnson yet. His market-based projections were 4.3 and 7.0 points in Weeks 5 and 6, an average of 5.7, which stands in until his Week 8 market posts.

That puts Rico Dowdle 1.2 points ahead of Ty Johnson on these projections.

Week 8 matchups

Rico Dowdle and PIT host CLE on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CLE allowed 19.4 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 7 games, the 8th fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 104 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game against CLE and caught passes for 20 more yards.

Ty Johnson and BUF host BAL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

BAL allowed 18.5 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 7 games, the 5th fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 77 yards and 0.9 touchdowns a game against BAL and caught passes for 15 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, Rico Dowdle has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Rico Dowdle is not on the injury report.

Ty Johnson is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, Rico Dowdle played 38 percent of PIT snaps, took 34 percent of the carries, drew 12 percent of the targets and had 25 percent of the red zone chances.

Rico Dowdle, Week 1 against ATL: 39 of 67 snaps, 8 carries for 15 yards, 5 targets and 2 catches for 6 yards.

Rico Dowdle, Week 2 against NE: 18 of 70 snaps, 7 carries for 22 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 22 yards.

Rico Dowdle, Week 6 against TB: 21 of 79 snaps, 7 carries for 40 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 9 yards.

Rico Dowdle, Week 7 against NO: 28 of 64 snaps, 9 carries for 41 yards, 6 targets and 6 catches for 45 yards.

Through Week 6, Ty Johnson played 23 percent of BUF snaps, took 2 percent of the carries, drew 12 percent of the targets and had 5 percent of the red zone chances.

Ty Johnson, Week 3 against LAC: 15 of 66 snaps, 0 carries for 0 yards, 4 targets and 4 catches for 50 yards.

Ty Johnson, Week 4 against NE: 19 of 59 snaps, 1 carry for 3 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 9 yards.

Ty Johnson, Week 5 against LAR: 14 of 64 snaps, 0 carries for 0 yards, 4 targets and 4 catches for 72 yards.

Ty Johnson, Week 6 against LV: 12 of 68 snaps, 1 carry for 3 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 24 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Rico Dowdle played 17 games for CAR and scored 216.3 PPR points, 12.7 a game, finishing RB18.

He ran 236 times for 1076 yards and 6 touchdowns, and caught 39 of 50 targets for 297 yards.

He was on the field for 56 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Ty Johnson played 17 games for BUF and scored 100.3 PPR points, 5.9 a game, finishing RB47.

He ran 50 times for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns, and caught 24 of 33 targets for 263 yards.

He was on the field for 29 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Rico Dowdle for Ty Johnson?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Ty Johnson projects 43 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (4.3 a game over 10 games), Rico Dowdle 32 (3.6 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Rico Dowdle over Ty Johnson. So make the move after his Week 8 game.
Should I drop Ty Johnson for Rico Dowdle?
No. Keep Ty Johnson: he projects 43 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (4.3 a game over 10 games), Rico Dowdle 32 (3.6 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Rico Dowdle over Ty Johnson.

Should I drop Rico Dowdle?