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Should I start Baker Mayfield or Gardner Minshew II in Week 9?

Updated Nov 4, 8:16 AM ET.

Start Baker Mayfield: 95 percent of the snaps and 0 percent of the targets over their last 3 games, against Gardner Minshew II's 42 percent of the snaps and 0 percent of the targets. No market projection is posted on either of them this week, so this is a usage call, and a lower confidence one than a call made on a projection. What follows is what each of them has done.

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Both players' season market-based projection, their usage this season and their last full season's numbers.

QB22 · TB · bye 10

2026 vs pass yds line 1-4

Overall rank
113

QB25 · ARI · bye unlisted

Market-based projection
9.5 pts a game

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The gap

  • Board size306 draftable players

Draft data is not current for these two, so the figures that depend on it are left out. The call above comes from each player's usage.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Baker Mayfield, and the board ranks him 113th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 20.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Gardner Minshew II, and the board ranks him 211th overall on the rest of his evidence.

The market-based projections

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 15.6 PPR points a game off 4 markets across 14 market sources. That is 80 percent of what a quarterback's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

Gardner Minshew II's market-based projection is 9.5 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 8 market sources. That is the 78th highest figure of the 220 players with a market-based projection.

Baker Mayfield's projection is not complete, so the two figures are not set against each other here.

This season through Week 8

Through Week 8, Baker Mayfield has been on the field for 97 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 134 times and thrown 8.4 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 23 of 134 dropbacks and scrambled 10 times.

In Week 3 against MIN he completed 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception and ran 2 times for 6 yards.

In Week 7 against CAR he completed 7 of 11 passes for 64 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions and ran 1 time for 1 yards.

In Week 8 against ATL he completed 0 of 3 passes for 0 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 3 times for 15 yards.

Through Week 8, Gardner Minshew II has been on the field for 42 percent of ARI snaps, dropped back 21 times and thrown 6.8 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 1 of 21 dropbacks.

In Week 8 against DAL he completed 17 of 20 passes for 188 yards and threw 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Baker Mayfield played 17 games and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He threw for 3693 yards on 543 attempts with 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

That came to 31.9 attempts a game at 6.8 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Gardner Minshew II played 4 games and scored 0.7 PPR points, 0.2 a game, finishing QB72.

He threw for 37 yards on 13 attempts with 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, and ran for 2 yards and 0 touchdowns.

That came to 3.3 attempts a game at 2.8 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 4 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Baker Mayfield was available for 13 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Baker Mayfield scored 16.6 PPR points a game and Gardner Minshew II 0.2, 16.5 a game between them.

Baker Mayfield finished QB12 that year and Gardner Minshew II QB72.

Baker Mayfield had 530 more pass attempts than Gardner Minshew II, 543 to 13.

Baker Mayfield had 3656 more passing yards than Gardner Minshew II, 3693 to 37.

This season Baker Mayfield holds the bigger snap share, 97 percent against 42 percent.

Their target share this season is the same, 0 percent each.

Byes and availability

Baker Mayfield is off in Week 10. No bye is listed for Gardner Minshew II.

What would change the answer

Baker Mayfield has only a partial projection, so the market half of this page is whole for only one of them.

Both players in full

Week 9 on the board

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