Brian Thomas Jr. or Xavier Hutchinson: who should I start in Week 5?

What the player markets price

The player markets price Brian Thomas Jr. at 6.5 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 14 market sources. That is the 126th highest figure of the 185 players the market prices.

The player markets price Xavier Hutchinson at 4.4 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 12 market sources. That is the 154th highest figure of the 185 players the market prices.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Brian Thomas Jr.: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 128th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Xavier Hutchinson: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 153rd overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season through Week 4

Through Week 4, Brian Thomas Jr. has been on the field for 47 percent of JAX snaps, drawn 14 percent of the targets and had 3 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 2 of the offence's 22 third down targets, had 0 of its 7 chances inside the five and seen 3 of its 11 two minute targets.

His 14 targets have averaged 10.5 air yards.

In Week 2 against DEN he caught 3 of 8 targets for 40 yards and did not score.

In Week 3 against NE he caught 1 of 1 target for 8 yards and did not score.

In Week 4 against CIN he caught 2 of 2 targets for 17 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

Through Week 4, Xavier Hutchinson has been on the field for 58 percent of HOU snaps, drawn 19 percent of the targets and had 4 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 6 of the offence's 32 third down targets, had 0 of its 5 chances inside the five and seen 7 of its 29 two minute targets.

His 26 targets have averaged 13.9 air yards.

In Week 2 against CIN he caught 3 of 9 targets for 37 yards and did not score.

In Week 3 against IND he carried 2 times for 4 yards, caught 3 of 6 targets for 51 yards and did not score.

In Week 4 against DAL he caught 3 of 5 targets for 46 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Brian Thomas Jr. played 14 games and scored 138.8 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing WR42.

He caught 48 of 91 targets for 707 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets.

That came to 6.5 targets a game, a 53 percent catch rate and 14.7 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 79 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Xavier Hutchinson played 17 games and scored 98.0 PPR points, 5.8 a game, finishing WR64.

He caught 35 of 57 targets for 428 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets.

That came to 3.4 targets a game, a 61 percent catch rate and 12.2 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 57 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Xavier Hutchinson was available for 3 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Brian Thomas Jr. scored 9.9 PPR points a game and Xavier Hutchinson 5.8, 4.1 a game between them.

Brian Thomas Jr. finished WR42 that year and Xavier Hutchinson WR64.

Brian Thomas Jr. had 34 more targets than Xavier Hutchinson, 91 to 57.

Brian Thomas Jr. had 279 more receiving yards than Xavier Hutchinson, 707 to 428.

This season Xavier Hutchinson holds the bigger snap share, 58 percent against 47 percent.

This season Xavier Hutchinson holds the bigger target share, 19 percent against 14 percent.

Byes and availability

Brian Thomas Jr. is off in Week 7. No bye is listed for Xavier Hutchinson.

What would change the answer

2.1 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the market price when it does.