Should I start Tetairoa McMillan or Christian Watson in Week 9?

The market-based projections

Tetairoa McMillan's market-based projection is 14.7 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 6 market sources. That is the 17th highest figure of the 211 players with a market-based projection.

Christian Watson's market-based projection is 14.6 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 10 market sources. That is the 18th highest figure of the 211 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Tetairoa McMillan, and the board ranks him 18th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Christian Watson, and the board ranks him 19th overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season through Week 8

Through Week 8, Tetairoa McMillan has been on the field for 83 percent of CAR snaps, drawn 26 percent of the targets and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 12 of the offence's 53 third down targets, had 3 of its 13 chances inside the five and seen 9 of its 34 two minute targets.

His 65 targets have averaged 10.7 air yards.

In Week 6 against PHI he caught 6 of 9 targets for 86 yards and did not score.

In Week 7 against TB he caught 4 of 6 targets for 40 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against GB he caught 6 of 11 targets for 58 yards and did not score.

Through Week 8, Christian Watson has been on the field for 77 percent of GB snaps, drawn 22 percent of the targets and had 8 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 21 of the offence's 88 third down targets, had 3 of its 21 chances inside the five and seen 6 of its 37 two minute targets.

His 66 targets have averaged 13.4 air yards.

In Week 6 against DAL he caught 3 of 8 targets for 64 yards and did not score.

In Week 7 against DET he caught 5 of 8 targets for 57 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against CAR he caught 8 of 10 targets for 113 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Tetairoa McMillan played 17 games and scored 211.4 PPR points, 12.4 a game, finishing WR16.

He caught 70 of 122 targets for 1014 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 15 red zone targets.

That came to 7.2 targets a game, a 57 percent catch rate and 15 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 87 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Christian Watson played 10 games and scored 132.4 PPR points, 13.2 a game, finishing WR46.

He caught 35 of 55 targets for 611 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets.

That came to 5-6 targets a game, a 64 percent catch rate and 18 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 68 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Tetairoa McMillan was available for 7 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Christian Watson scored 13.2 PPR points a game and Tetairoa McMillan 12.4, 0.8 a game between them.

Tetairoa McMillan finished WR16 that year and Christian Watson WR46.

Tetairoa McMillan had 67 more targets than Christian Watson, 122 to 55.

Tetairoa McMillan had 403 more receiving yards than Christian Watson, 1014 to 611.

This season Tetairoa McMillan holds the bigger snap share, 83 percent against 77 percent.

This season Tetairoa McMillan holds the bigger target share, 26 percent against 22 percent.

Byes and availability

Tetairoa McMillan is off in Week 5 and Christian Watson in Week 11, so either can cover the other's bye.

Christian Watson is listed as questionable on the injury report.

What would change the answer

0.0 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.