Christian Watson or Tetairoa McMillan: who to draft first

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price Christian Watson at 13.0 PPR points a game, built from 4 markets across 17 books. That is the 52nd highest figure of the 182 players the books price.

The player markets price Tetairoa McMillan at 12.9 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 17 books. That is the 54th highest figure of the 182 players the books price.

Where the draft room has them

Christian Watson goes at ADP 5, an average pick of 50.4, and the board has him WR10 in tier 3.

His earliest recorded pick is 42 and his latest 61, a standard deviation of 6.0 picks.

He appears in 377 recorded drafts across the formats the consensus sample covers.

Over 14 days drafters have taken Watson 7.0 picks earlier.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 71.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Tetairoa McMillan: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 31st overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 50.

This season through Week 1

Through Week 1, Christian Watson has been on the field for 76 percent of GB snaps, drawn 20 percent of the targets and had 10 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 2 of the offence's 10 third down targets, had 1 of its 1 chance inside the five and seen 3 of its 9 two minute targets.

His 8 targets have averaged 15.9 air yards.

In Week 1 against MIN he caught 6 of 8 targets for 147 yards and scored 2 touchdowns.

Through Week 1, Tetairoa McMillan has been on the field for 82 percent of CAR snaps, drawn 24 percent of the targets and had 10 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 5 third down targets, had 0 of its 3 chances inside the five and seen 0 of its 3 two minute targets.

His 8 targets have averaged 14.9 air yards.

In Week 1 against CHI he caught 5 of 8 targets for 75 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Christian Watson played 10 games and scored 132.4 PPR points, 13.2 a game, finishing WR46.

He caught 35 of 55 targets for 611 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets.

That came to 5.5 targets a game, a 64 percent catch rate and 17.5 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 68 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Tetairoa McMillan played 17 games and scored 211.4 PPR points, 12.4 a game, finishing WR16.

He caught 70 of 122 targets for 1014 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 15 red zone targets.

That came to 7.2 targets a game, a 57 percent catch rate and 14.5 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 87 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Tetairoa McMillan was available for 7 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Christian Watson scored 13.2 PPR points a game and Tetairoa McMillan 12.4, 0.8 a game between them.

Christian Watson finished WR46 that year and Tetairoa McMillan WR16.

Tetairoa McMillan had 67 more targets than Christian Watson, 122 to 55.

Tetairoa McMillan had 403 more receiving yards than Christian Watson, 1014 to 611.

This season Tetairoa McMillan holds the bigger snap share, 82 percent against 76 percent.

This season Tetairoa McMillan holds the bigger target share, 24 percent against 20 percent.

Byes and availability

Christian Watson is off in Week 11 and Tetairoa McMillan in Week 5, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.2 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.