Should I start Tetairoa McMillan or Derrick Henry in Week 10?

The market-based projections

Tetairoa McMillan's market-based projection is 15.0 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 15 market sources. That is the 34th highest figure of the 214 players with a market-based projection.

Derrick Henry's market-based projection is 13.9 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 10 market sources. That is the 46th highest figure of the 214 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Tetairoa McMillan, and the board ranks him 25th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Derrick Henry, and the board ranks him 28th overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season through Week 9

Through Week 9, Tetairoa McMillan has been on the field for 83 percent of CAR snaps, drawn 25 percent of the targets and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 13 of the offence's 61 third down targets, had 4 of its 15 chances inside the five and seen 10 of its 37 two minute targets.

His 71 targets have averaged 11.0 air yards.

In Week 7 against TB he caught 4 of 6 targets for 40 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against GB he caught 6 of 11 targets for 58 yards and did not score.

In Week 9 against DEN he caught 4 of 6 targets for 56 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

Through Week 9, Derrick Henry has been on the field for 55 percent of BAL snaps, taken 68 percent of the carries, drawn 6 percent of the targets and had 51 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 1 of the offence's 72 third down targets, had 16 of its 26 chances inside the five and seen 0 of its 49 two minute targets.

His 14 targets have come 2.4 yards behind the line of scrimmage on average.

In Week 7 against CIN he carried 17 times for 45 yards, caught 1 of 2 targets for 4 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against BUF he carried 11 times for 53 yards, caught 2 of 2 targets for 7 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 9 against JAX he carried 17 times for 57 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Tetairoa McMillan played 17 games and scored 211.4 PPR points, 12.4 a game, finishing WR16.

He caught 70 of 122 targets for 1014 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 15 red zone targets.

That came to 7.2 targets a game, a 57 percent catch rate and 15 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 87 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Derrick Henry played 17 games and scored 279.5 PPR points, 16.4 a game, finishing RB8.

He carried 307 times for 1595 yards and 16 touchdowns, and caught 15 of 21 targets for 150 more yards.

That came to 18.1 carries a game at 5.2 yards a carry and 0.9 catches a game.

He was on the field for 54 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Both were available for 17 games that season.

Side by side

In 2025 Derrick Henry scored 16.4 PPR points a game and Tetairoa McMillan 12.4, 4.0 a game between them.

Tetairoa McMillan finished WR16 and Derrick Henry RB8, which are two different ladders.

Tetairoa McMillan is a wide receiver and Derrick Henry a running back, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Tetairoa McMillan is off in Week 5 and Derrick Henry in Week 13, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

1.1 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.