Start Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence? Week 10
Updated Nov 10, 11:51 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 11 answer posts Tuesday.
Latest
- : Patrick Mahomes: Listed Questionable (Elbow) (Sleeper injury feed)
Start Patrick Mahomes over Trevor Lawrence
- Market projects
- 17.0
- fantasy pts
- ATL D vs QB
- 15.9
- 11th fewest to QBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 99%
- Through Week 9
- Market projects
- 16.9
- fantasy pts
- TEN D vs QB
- 19.4
- 9th most to QBs (2026)
- Snap share
- 96%
- Through Week 9
Should I drop Patrick Mahomes for Trevor Lawrence?
Not on these numbers alone. Patrick Mahomes projects 137 market-implied PPR points from Week 10 through Week 17 (17.1 a game over 8 games) and Trevor Lawrence 138 (17.2 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 10 the call starts Patrick Mahomes over Trevor Lawrence, 17.0 to 16.9 projected PPR points. Patrick Mahomes is listed questionable.
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Our Week 10 call
Start Patrick Mahomes over Trevor Lawrence in Week 10.
Market-based projections have Patrick Mahomes at 17.0 points and Trevor Lawrence at 16.9, a gap of 0.1. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take Patrick Mahomes at ADP 107 and Trevor Lawrence at 97.
What the market projects
Player markets imply 17.0 fantasy points for Patrick Mahomes, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.
The market-based projection for Patrick Mahomes is 242 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 0-1 interceptions, 11 rushing yards and 0.1 rushing touchdowns (7, 7, 5, 7 and 7 market sources).
Player markets imply 16.9 fantasy points for Trevor Lawrence, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.
The market-based projection for Trevor Lawrence is 234 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 10 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (5, 5, 5 and 6 market sources).
That puts Patrick Mahomes 0.1 points ahead of Trevor Lawrence on the market projections.
Week 10 matchups
Patrick Mahomes and KC visit ATL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
ATL allowed 16.0 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 8 games, the 11th fewest in the league.
Quarterbacks threw for 238 yards and 1.4 touchdowns a game against ATL, with 0.4 interceptions a game.
Trevor Lawrence and JAX visit TEN on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.
TEN allowed 19.4 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 8 games, the 9th most in the league.
Quarterbacks threw for 273 yards and 1.4 touchdowns a game against TEN, with an interception a game.
By points allowed to the position, Trevor Lawrence has the softer matchup.
Injury status
Patrick Mahomes is listed as questionable with a elbow injury.
Trevor Lawrence is not on the injury report.
Usage before Week 10
Through Week 9, Patrick Mahomes played 99 percent of KC snaps, dropped back 289 times and threw an average of 5.6 air yards per attempt.
Patrick Mahomes, Week 6 against LAC: 61 of 61 snaps, 23 of 30 passes for 272 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 3 carries for 19 yards.
Patrick Mahomes, Week 7 against SEA: 53 of 53 snaps, 19 of 33 passes for 165 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 14 yards.
Patrick Mahomes, Week 8 against DEN: 69 of 69 snaps, 30 of 41 passes for 321 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 6 yards.
Patrick Mahomes, Week 9 against NYJ: 62 of 66 snaps, 23 of 31 passes for 242 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 8 yards.
Through Week 9, Trevor Lawrence played 96 percent of JAX snaps, dropped back 245 times and threw an average of 8.2 air yards per attempt.
Trevor Lawrence, Week 5 against PHI: 72 of 72 snaps, 24 of 39 passes for 331 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 3 carries for 25 yards.
Trevor Lawrence, Week 6 against HOU: 71 of 71 snaps, 24 of 41 passes for 306 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 12 yards.
Trevor Lawrence, Week 8 against IND: 44 of 54 snaps, 10 of 14 passes for 210 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 10 yards.
Trevor Lawrence, Week 9 against BAL: 56 of 56 snaps, 16 of 26 passes for 242 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions.
Their 2025 seasons
In 2025, Patrick Mahomes played 14 games for KC and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.
He completed 315 of 502 passes for 3587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 64 times for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.
He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
In 2025, Trevor Lawrence played 17 games for JAX and scored 350.2 PPR points, 20.6 a game, finishing QB4.
He completed 341 of 560 passes for 4007 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and ran 82 times for 359 yards and 9 touchdowns.
He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.
Their other Week 10 calls
Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 10, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.
Drop or keep
Should I drop Patrick Mahomes for Trevor Lawrence?
Not on these numbers alone. Patrick Mahomes projects 137 market-implied PPR points from Week 10 through Week 17 (17.1 a game over 8 games) and Trevor Lawrence 138 (17.2 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 10 the call starts Patrick Mahomes over Trevor Lawrence, 17.0 to 16.9 projected PPR points. Patrick Mahomes is listed questionable.
Should I drop Trevor Lawrence for Patrick Mahomes?
Not on these numbers alone. Trevor Lawrence projects 138 market-implied PPR points from Week 10 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 8 games) and Patrick Mahomes 137 (17.1 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 10 the call starts Patrick Mahomes over Trevor Lawrence, 17.0 to 16.9 projected PPR points. Patrick Mahomes is listed questionable.
Week 10 on the board
- Is Patrick Mahomes playing Week 10?
- Is Trevor Lawrence playing Week 10?
- Chiefs depth chart
- Jaguars depth chart
- Week 10 QB rankings
- Week 10 fantasy rankings
- Week 10 start or sit
- Week 10 waiver wire
- Week 10 trade value chart
- Trade deadline buy low, sell high
- Fantasy football rankings
- Start 'em sit 'em Week 10
- Waiver wire pickups
- Fantasy sleepers
- Rest of season rankings
- Week 10 kicker rankings
- Week 10 defense rankings