Who to draft first overall in fantasy basketball 2026-27: the case for Jokić, Wembanyama, Gilgeous-Alexander and Dončić

The short answer

In points leagues and in 9-cat leagues, the Parlae board's first pick is Nikola Jokić. That is not close in points and it is closer than it looks in 9-cat, where Victor Wembanyama sits 1.0 z-score behind him. The rest of this guide is the case for each of the four players who could reasonably go first, built only from box scores, games played and the board's own math.

The board ranks players per game from 2025-26 box scores under their current teams. It is not ADP, and nothing here says where your room will take anyone.

The four candidates, side by side

Source: Parlae fantasy basketball board and auction model, Oct 13 2026; games from Sleeper's season totals; age on opening night, Oct 20 2026. Fantasy points use the board's weights: 1 per point, 1.2 per rebound, 1.5 per assist, 3 per steal, 3 per block, minus 1 per turnover.

Giannis is in the table because he is fifth in points. He is not a 1.01 candidate on this board: 36 games last season and a 9-cat rank of 50th, pulled down by a free throw z-score of minus 4.5.

Three seasons of ranks

A per-game board reads one season. Running the same formulas on the two seasons before shows how stable each player's place has been.

Source: Sleeper season totals for each season, ranked with the Parlae board's points weights and 9-cat z-score method among players with 20 or more games that season.

Jokić is the only one of the four who was top three in both formats in all three seasons. Gilgeous-Alexander never finished worse than 3rd in 9-cat. Dončić's 9-cat rank has sat between 5th and 6th every year, which is the cost of his turnovers, not a slump.

The case for Nikola Jokić

Points. At 62.1 fantasy points per game, Jokić leads Dončić by 4.4, the biggest gap between any two neighbors in the board's first round. He also led every NBA player in total fantasy points in each of the last three seasons: 4,561 in 2023-24, 4,501 in 2024-25 and 4,040 in 2025-26. Per game and over a season, he has been the top number.

9-cat. His category profile is the widest on the board. He averaged 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.7 assists on 56.9% shooting, and his z-score is positive in eight of the nine categories: points 1.9, rebounds 3.1, assists 3.5, steals 1.1, blocks 0.3, threes 0.1, FG% 2.3 and FT% 0.7. The one negative is turnovers, minus 2.4 on 3.7 a game. A first pick with eight positive categories leaves every build open in round 2.

The risk. He is 31 on opening night and his games have come down: 78, then 70, then 65. Sixty-five is still more than Dončić or Wembanyama played. Denver also has the lightest opening week of the four teams: 2 games from Oct 19 to Oct 25, against 3 for the Lakers, Spurs and Thunder. That is one week of a season and should not move a first pick. Jokić's player page has the full line.

The case for Victor Wembanyama

9-cat. Wembanyama is second at 9.6, and the shape of his value is unlike anyone's. He blocked 3.1 shots a game, a blocks z-score of 5.0, the largest single-category score among the four candidates. He also added 11.5 rebounds and 1.9 threes, shot 82.7% at the line, and turned it over 2.4 times a game against Jokić's 3.7. His weak spot is assists, minus 0.3.

Points. He is third at 53.4, but he got there in 29.2 minutes. His 65.9 fantasy points per 36 minutes is the highest rate on the board's top 200, ahead of Jokić's 64.2. That is a rate, not a forecast. Nothing in this data says his minutes will change.

The risk. Games. He played 64 last season after 46 the year before, 181 of a possible 246 over three seasons. Jokić played 213. Sleeper lists Wembanyama DTD with a rest designation today, a preseason tag rather than an injury. He has played 2 preseason games in ESPN's box scores, 39 minutes in all.

When he is the pick. In a 9-cat league, if you weigh the 1.0 gap to Jokić against a nine-year age difference and want the blocks category settled in round 1, Wembanyama is a defensible 1.01. In points, Jokić and Dončić are both ahead of him per game.

The case for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Durability. He has the most games of the four over three seasons: 68, 76 and 74, which is 218 of 246.

9-cat. Third at 8.4, and the most efficient scorer of the group. He scored 31.1 points a game at 55.3% from the field on 19.4 attempts and 87.9% at the line on 9.0 attempts. Those two percentage scores, 2.1 and 2.2, are 4.3 of his 8.4 total. He turned it over 2.2 times a game, the fewest of the four. His soft spot is rebounds, minus 0.7.

Points. Fourth at 50.4. Points scoring ignores shooting percentages, so the part of his game that drives his 9-cat value does not count there. That is why he is a 9-cat 1.01 conversation and a points 1.04 on this board.

The risk. Little in the data. Sleeper lists him GTD with a rest designation, and he has played 1 preseason game, 18 minutes, in ESPN's box scores.

The case for Luka Dončić

Points. Second at 57.7, on 33.5 points, 7.7 rebounds and 8.3 assists. In 2023-24 he was first in points per game by the same formula, at 61.5. If your league scores points and you are not taking Jokić, Dončić is the board's name.

9-cat. Sixth at 6.2. He is positive in points (2.9), threes (2.4 on 4.0 a game), assists (2.3) and steals (1.8), and negative in turnovers (minus 2.7, on 4.0 a game), FT% (minus 0.6) and FG% (minus 0.4). Those three are what keep him out of the top three. In a league where you plan to punt turnovers, the punting guide has him third on that board.

The risk. He played 50 games two seasons ago and 64 last season.

Who to take, by format

1. Points league, 1.01: Jokić. He leads per game by 4.4 and led the league in season totals three years running. Dončić is the board's 1.02.
2. 9-cat, 1.01: Jokić, with Wembanyama a defensible alternative. The 1.0 z-score gap is real but not large, and Wembanyama is 22.
3. 9-cat, a league that rewards games played: look hard at Gilgeous-Alexander at 1.02 or 1.03. He has played the most of the four, and his total is 8.4.
4. Roto or H2H? The ranks above are per game. In season-total formats, games matter more; the head-to-head vs roto guide shows how the order changes.
5. Check designations the morning of the draft. Rest tags are common in October and change daily on the injury page. For what the rest of your draft looks like from the 1.01 slot, see draft strategy by pick slot and the full 9-cat rankings.