Start Bucky Irving or Aaron Jones Sr.? Week 7

Updated Oct 19, 3:01 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Irving projects lower, 11.4 to 16.4, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 45 for Irving, 110 for Jones.

Start

Bucky Irving

RB · TB · at CAR

Market projects: 11.4; recent weeks avg
CAR D vs RB: 28.0; 4th most to RBs (2026)
Snap share: 61%; Through Week 6
Target share: 11%; Through Week 6

Sit

Aaron Jones Sr.

RB · MIN · vs IND · Questionable

Market projects: 16.4; recent weeks avg
IND D vs RB: 26.8; 5th most to RBs (2026)

Should I drop Bucky Irving for Aaron Jones Sr.?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Aaron Jones Sr. projects 182 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.5 a game over 11 games), Bucky Irving 120 (12.0 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Bucky Irving over Aaron Jones Sr. So make the move after his Week 7 game. Aaron Jones Sr. is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Bucky Irving over Aaron Jones Sr. in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Bucky Irving at 11.4 points and Aaron Jones Sr. at 16.4, a gap of 5.0. Bucky Irving still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 45 against 110, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for Bucky Irving this week yet, so his 11.4 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (11.5 and 11.2); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Aaron Jones Sr. this week yet, so his 16.4 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (16.6 and 16.2); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Aaron Jones Sr. yet. His market-based projections were 16.7 and 16.2 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 16.4, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

No Week 7 player market is posted for Bucky Irving yet. His market-based projections were 11.5 and 11.2 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 11.4, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

That puts Aaron Jones Sr. 5.0 points ahead of Bucky Irving on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Aaron Jones Sr. and MIN host IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

IND allowed 26.8 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 5 games, the 5th most in the league.

Running backs ran for 100 yards and a touchdown a game against IND and caught passes for 53 more yards.

Bucky Irving and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 28.0 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 4 games, the 4th most in the league.

Running backs ran for 120 yards and 1.3 touchdowns a game against CAR and caught passes for 38 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, Bucky Irving has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Aaron Jones Sr. is listed as questionable with a leg injury.

Bucky Irving is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Bucky Irving played 61 percent of TB snaps, took 61 percent of the carries, drew 11 percent of the targets and had 38 percent of the red zone chances.

Bucky Irving, Week 3 against MIN: 36 of 69 snaps, 15 carries for 46 yards, 4 targets and 2 catches for 12 yards.

Bucky Irving, Week 4 against GB: 37 of 64 snaps, 16 carries for 61 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Bucky Irving, Week 5 against DAL: 39 of 72 snaps, 21 carries for 165 yards, 3 targets and 2 catches for 10 yards, 2 touchdowns.

Bucky Irving, Week 6 against PIT: 19 carries for 46 yards, 3 targets and 2 catches for 3 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Aaron Jones Sr. played 12 games for MIN and scored 118.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing RB41.

He ran 132 times for 548 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 28 of 41 targets for 199 yards.

He was on the field for 55 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 17 of 2025 against DET: 35 of 54 snaps, 18 carries for 53 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 10 yards, 1 touchdown, 15.3 PPR points.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 16 of 2025 against NYG: 39 of 61 snaps, 21 carries for 85 yards, 3 targets and 2 catches for 8 yards, 11.3 PPR points.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 15 of 2025 against DAL: 32 of 55 snaps, 12 carries for 34 yards, 3 targets and 3 catches for 31 yards, 9.5 PPR points.

In 2025, Bucky Irving played 10 games for TB and scored 138.5 PPR points, 13.9 a game, finishing RB34.

He ran 173 times for 588 yards and 1 touchdown, and caught 30 of 35 targets for 277 yards.

He was on the field for 62 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Bucky Irving for Aaron Jones Sr.?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Aaron Jones Sr. projects 182 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.5 a game over 11 games), Bucky Irving 120 (12.0 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Bucky Irving over Aaron Jones Sr. So make the move after his Week 7 game. Aaron Jones Sr. is listed questionable.
Should I drop Aaron Jones Sr. for Bucky Irving?
No. Keep Aaron Jones Sr.: he projects 182 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.5 a game over 11 games), Bucky Irving 120 (12.0 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Bucky Irving over Aaron Jones Sr. Aaron Jones Sr. is listed questionable.