Start Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers? Week 8

Updated Oct 27, 2:26 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Patrick Mahomes over Aaron Rodgers

Start

Patrick Mahomes

QB · KC · at DEN

Market projects: 16.8; fantasy pts
DEN D vs QB: 16.1; 12th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 28 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 7

Sit

Aaron Rodgers

QB · PIT · vs CLE

Market projects: 14.6; recent weeks avg
CLE D vs QB: 15.4; 8th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 13 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 99%; Through Week 7

Should I drop Aaron Rodgers for Patrick Mahomes?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Patrick Mahomes projects 174 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.4 a game over 10 games), Aaron Rodgers 131 (14.5 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Patrick Mahomes over Aaron Rodgers.

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Our Week 8 call

Start Patrick Mahomes over Aaron Rodgers in Week 8.

Market-based projections have Patrick Mahomes at 16.8 points and Aaron Rodgers at 14.6, a gap of 2.3. Patrick Mahomes's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. No player market is posted for Aaron Rodgers this week yet, so his 14.6 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 5, 6 and 7 (14.5, 14.3 and 14.8); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take Patrick Mahomes at ADP 107 and Aaron Rodgers at 231. Market coverage on Patrick Mahomes is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the market projects

No Week 8 player market is posted for Aaron Rodgers yet. His market-based projections were 14.5, 14.4 and 14.8 points in Weeks 5, 6 and 7, an average of 14.6, which stands in until his Week 8 market posts.

Player markets imply 16.8 fantasy points for Patrick Mahomes, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Patrick Mahomes is 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 touchdowns (3 and 3 market sources).

That puts Patrick Mahomes 2.3 points ahead of Aaron Rodgers on these projections.

Week 8 matchups

Aaron Rodgers and PIT host CLE on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CLE allowed 15.4 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 8th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 221 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against CLE, with 0.7 interceptions a game.

Patrick Mahomes and KC visit DEN on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

DEN allowed 16.2 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 12th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 236 yards and 1.1 touchdowns a game against DEN, with an interception a game.

By points allowed to the position, Patrick Mahomes has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Aaron Rodgers is not on the injury report.

Patrick Mahomes is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, Aaron Rodgers played 99 percent of PIT snaps, dropped back 286 times and threw an average of 7.5 air yards per attempt.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 4 against CLE: 72 of 72 snaps, 22 of 40 passes for 299 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 5 against IND: 58 of 60 snaps, 22 of 31 passes for 235 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 6 yards.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 6 against TB: 79 of 79 snaps, 33 of 47 passes for 253 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception.

Aaron Rodgers, Week 7 against NO: 64 of 64 snaps, 19 of 30 passes for 212 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 8 yards.

Through Week 7, Patrick Mahomes played 100 percent of KC snaps, dropped back 210 times and threw an average of 6.0 air yards per attempt.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 3 against MIA: 52 of 52 snaps, 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 4 against LV: 60 of 60 snaps, 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 6 against LAC: 61 of 61 snaps, 23 of 30 passes for 272 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 3 carries for 19 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 7 against SEA: 53 of 53 snaps, 19 of 33 passes for 165 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 14 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Aaron Rodgers played 16 games for PIT and scored 234.1 PPR points, 14.6 a game, finishing QB18.

He completed 327 of 498 passes for 3322 yards, 24 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 21 times for 61 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 95 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Patrick Mahomes played 14 games for KC and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He completed 315 of 502 passes for 3587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 64 times for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Aaron Rodgers for Patrick Mahomes?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Patrick Mahomes projects 174 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.4 a game over 10 games), Aaron Rodgers 131 (14.5 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Patrick Mahomes over Aaron Rodgers.
Should I drop Patrick Mahomes for Aaron Rodgers?
No. Keep Patrick Mahomes: he projects 174 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.4 a game over 10 games), Aaron Rodgers 131 (14.5 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Patrick Mahomes over Aaron Rodgers.

Should I drop Aaron Rodgers?