Should I drop Patrick Mahomes for Caleb Williams?

Not on these numbers alone. Patrick Mahomes projects 174 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.4 a game over 10 games) and Caleb Williams 167 (18.5 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Caleb Williams over Patrick Mahomes, 17.5 to 16.8 projected PPR points.

Start Caleb Williams or Patrick Mahomes? Week 8

Updated Oct 27, 11:56 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Caleb Williams over Patrick Mahomes

Start

Caleb Williams

QB · CHI · at SEA

Market projects: 17.5; fantasy pts
SEA D vs QB: 11.6; 2nd fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 53 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 97%; Through Week 7

Sit

Patrick Mahomes

QB · KC · at DEN

Market projects: 16.8; fantasy pts
DEN D vs QB: 16.1; 12th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 28 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 7

Should I drop Caleb Williams for Patrick Mahomes?

Not on these numbers alone. Caleb Williams projects 167 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 9 games) and Patrick Mahomes 174 (17.4 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Caleb Williams over Patrick Mahomes, 17.5 to 16.8 projected PPR points.

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Our Week 8 call

Start Caleb Williams over Patrick Mahomes in Week 8.

Market-based projections have Caleb Williams at 17.5 points and Patrick Mahomes at 16.8, a gap of 0.6. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Patrick Mahomes's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Drafters take Caleb Williams at ADP 87 and Patrick Mahomes at 107.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 17.5 fantasy points for Caleb Williams, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Caleb Williams is 228 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (10, 11 and 8 market sources).

Player markets imply 16.8 fantasy points for Patrick Mahomes, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Patrick Mahomes is 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 touchdowns (3 and 3 market sources).

That puts Caleb Williams 0.6 points ahead of Patrick Mahomes on the market projections.

Week 8 matchups

Caleb Williams and CHI visit SEA on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

SEA allowed 11.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 2nd fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 158 yards and 1.1 touchdowns a game against SEA, with 1.1 interceptions a game.

Patrick Mahomes and KC visit DEN on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

DEN allowed 16.2 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 12th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 236 yards and 1.1 touchdowns a game against DEN, with an interception a game.

By points allowed to the position, Patrick Mahomes has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Caleb Williams is not on the injury report.

Patrick Mahomes is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, Caleb Williams played 97 percent of CHI snaps, dropped back 150 times and threw an average of 7.0 air yards per attempt.

Caleb Williams, Week 1 against CAR: 75 of 75 snaps, 21 of 29 passes for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 10 carries for 65 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 2 against MIN: 64 of 74 snaps, 15 of 26 passes for 138 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 5 carries for 42 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 6 against ATL: 77 of 77 snaps, 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 4 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 7 against NE: 69 of 69 snaps, 22 of 33 passes for 308 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 19 yards.

Through Week 7, Patrick Mahomes played 100 percent of KC snaps, dropped back 210 times and threw an average of 6.0 air yards per attempt.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 3 against MIA: 52 of 52 snaps, 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 4 against LV: 60 of 60 snaps, 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 6 against LAC: 61 of 61 snaps, 23 of 30 passes for 272 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 3 carries for 19 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 7 against SEA: 53 of 53 snaps, 19 of 33 passes for 165 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 14 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Caleb Williams played 17 games for CHI and scored 325.2 PPR points, 19.1 a game, finishing QB5.

He completed 330 of 568 passes for 3942 yards, 27 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 77 times for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Patrick Mahomes played 14 games for KC and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He completed 315 of 502 passes for 3587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 64 times for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Caleb Williams for Patrick Mahomes?
Not on these numbers alone. Caleb Williams projects 167 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 9 games) and Patrick Mahomes 174 (17.4 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Caleb Williams over Patrick Mahomes, 17.5 to 16.8 projected PPR points.
Should I drop Patrick Mahomes for Caleb Williams?
Not on these numbers alone. Patrick Mahomes projects 174 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.4 a game over 10 games) and Caleb Williams 167 (18.5 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Caleb Williams over Patrick Mahomes, 17.5 to 16.8 projected PPR points.