Jake Ferguson or AJ Barner: who should I start?

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price Jake Ferguson at 8.0 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 17 books. That is the 126th highest figure of the 183 players the books price.

The player markets price AJ Barner at 6.2 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 15 books. That is the 158th highest figure of the 183 players the books price.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Jake Ferguson: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 114th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 147.

Drafters have formed no consensus on AJ Barner: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 140th overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season through Week 1

Through Week 1, Jake Ferguson has been on the field for 76 percent of DAL snaps, drawn 7 percent of the targets and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 8 third down targets, had 1 of its 5 chances inside the five and seen 1 of its 5 two minute targets.

His 2 targets have averaged 3.0 air yards.

In Week 1 against NYG he caught 2 of 2 targets for 6 yards and did not score.

Through Week 1, AJ Barner has been on the field for 88 percent of SEA snaps, drawn 8 percent of the targets and had 0 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 7 third down targets and seen 1 of its 3 two minute targets.

His 2 targets have come 0.5 yards behind the line of scrimmage on average.

In Week 1 against NE he caught 2 of 2 targets for 13 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Jake Ferguson played 17 games and scored 188.1 PPR points, 11.1 a game, finishing TE5.

He caught 82 of 102 targets for 600 yards and 8 touchdowns, with 23 red zone targets.

That came to 6.0 targets a game, a 80 percent catch rate and 7.3 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 67 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 AJ Barner played 17 games and scored 147.3 PPR points, 8.7 a game, finishing TE14.

He caught 52 of 68 targets for 519 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 12 red zone targets.

That came to 4.0 targets a game, a 76 percent catch rate and 10.0 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 78 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Both were available for 17 games that season.

Head to head

In 2025 Jake Ferguson scored 11.1 PPR points a game and AJ Barner 8.7, 2.4 a game between them.

Jake Ferguson finished TE5 that year and AJ Barner TE14.

Jake Ferguson had 34 more targets than AJ Barner, 102 to 68.

Jake Ferguson had 81 more receiving yards than AJ Barner, 600 to 519.

This season AJ Barner holds the bigger snap share, 88 percent against 76 percent.

This season AJ Barner holds the bigger target share, 8 percent against 7 percent.

Byes and availability

Jake Ferguson is off in Week 14 and AJ Barner in Week 11, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

1.7 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.