Start A.J. Brown or Garrett Wilson? Week 7

Updated Oct 21, 7:21 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Brown projects lower, 15.7 to 16.2, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 17 for Brown, 27 for Wilson.

Start

A.J. Brown

WR · NE · at CHI · Questionable

Market projects: 15.7; fantasy pts
CHI D vs WR: 31.5; 15th fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 81 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 60%; Through Week 6
Target share: 23%; Through Week 6

Sit

Garrett Wilson

WR · NYJ · vs MIA

Market projects: 16.2; recent weeks avg
MIA D vs WR: 23.2; 3rd fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 56 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 90%; Through Week 6
Target share: 29%; Through Week 6

Should I drop A.J. Brown for Garrett Wilson?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Garrett Wilson projects 161 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.1 a game over 10 games), A.J. Brown 95 (9.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts A.J. Brown over Garrett Wilson. So make the move after his Week 7 game. A.J. Brown is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start A.J. Brown over Garrett Wilson in Week 7.

Market-based projections have A.J. Brown at 15.7 points and Garrett Wilson at 16.2, a gap of 0.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. A.J. Brown still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 17 against 27, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for Garrett Wilson this week yet, so his 16.2 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4, 5 and 6 (16.7, 16.0 and 15.8); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Garrett Wilson yet. His market-based projections were 16.7, 16.0 and 15.8 points in Weeks 4, 5 and 6, an average of 16.2, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

Player markets imply 15.7 fantasy points for A.J. Brown, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The market-based projection for A.J. Brown is 71 receiving yards, 5-6 receptions and 0-1 touchdowns (10, 9 and 12 market sources).

That puts Garrett Wilson 0.4 points ahead of A.J. Brown on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Garrett Wilson and NYJ host MIA on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

MIA allowed 23.2 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 5 games, the 3rd fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 110 yards and 0.4 touchdowns a game against MIA.

A.J. Brown and NE visit CHI on Thursday at 8:15 PM ET.

CHI allowed 31.5 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 15th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 160 yards and a touchdown a game against CHI.

By points allowed to the position, A.J. Brown has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Garrett Wilson is not on the injury report.

A.J. Brown is listed as questionable with a ankle injury.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Garrett Wilson played 90 percent of NYJ snaps, drew 29 percent of the targets, earned 37 percent of the air yards and had 9 percent of the red zone chances.

Garrett Wilson, Week 3 against DET: 62 of 66 snaps, 13 targets and 10 catches for 107 yards, 1 touchdown.

Garrett Wilson, Week 4 against CHI: 32 of 32 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 27 yards.

Garrett Wilson, Week 5 against CLE: 65 of 70 snaps, 11 targets and 7 catches for 104 yards, 1 touchdown.

Garrett Wilson, Week 6 against NE: 61 of 62 snaps, 6 targets and 4 catches for 44 yards.

Through Week 6, A.J. Brown played 60 percent of NE snaps, drew 23 percent of the targets, earned 24 percent of the air yards and had 19 percent of the red zone chances.

A.J. Brown, Week 1 against SEA: 31 of 71 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 26 yards.

A.J. Brown, Week 6 against NYJ: 52 of 68 snaps, 10 targets and 3 catches for 27 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Garrett Wilson played 7 games for NYJ and scored 99.5 PPR points, 14.2 a game, finishing WR62.

He caught 36 of 59 targets for 395 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 2 red zone targets and 291 air yards.

He was on the field for 89 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, A.J. Brown played 15 games for PHI and scored 220.3 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing WR11.

He caught 78 of 121 targets for 1003 yards and 7 touchdowns, with 12 red zone targets and 735 air yards.

He was on the field for 91 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

A.J. Brown, Week 17 of 2025 against BUF: 48 of 54 snaps, 7 targets and 5 catches for 68 yards, 11.8 PPR points.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop A.J. Brown for Garrett Wilson?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Garrett Wilson projects 161 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.1 a game over 10 games), A.J. Brown 95 (9.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts A.J. Brown over Garrett Wilson. So make the move after his Week 7 game. A.J. Brown is listed questionable.
Should I drop Garrett Wilson for A.J. Brown?
No. Keep Garrett Wilson: he projects 161 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.1 a game over 10 games), A.J. Brown 95 (9.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts A.J. Brown over Garrett Wilson. A.J. Brown is listed questionable.