Start AJ Dillon or Seth McGowan? Week 7

Our Week 7 call

Start AJ Dillon over Seth McGowan in Week 7.

Market-based projections have AJ Dillon at 2.8 points and Seth McGowan at 2.7, a gap of 0.0. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Market coverage on AJ Dillon is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 2.8 fantasy points for AJ Dillon, with 70 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

The market-based projection for AJ Dillon is 12 rushing yards and 0.1 touchdowns (8 and 12 market sources).

Player markets imply 2.7 fantasy points for Seth McGowan, with 70 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Seth McGowan is 14 rushing yards and 0.1 touchdowns (7 and 12 market sources).

That puts AJ Dillon 0.0 points ahead of Seth McGowan on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

AJ Dillon and CAR host TB on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

TB allowed 17.0 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 6 games, the 3rd fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 65 yards and 0.3 touchdowns a game against TB and caught passes for 36 more yards.

Seth McGowan and IND visit MIN on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

MIN allowed 14.3 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 5 games, the fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 72 yards and 0.4 touchdowns a game against MIN and caught passes for 18 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, AJ Dillon has the softer matchup.

Injury status

AJ Dillon is not on the injury report.

Seth McGowan is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 4, AJ Dillon played 12 percent of CAR snaps, took 18 percent of the carries, drew 1 percent of the targets and had 3 percent of the red zone chances.

AJ Dillon, Week 1 against CHI: 7 of 68 snaps, 5 carries for 28 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.

AJ Dillon, Week 2 against ATL: 4 of 66 snaps, 3 carries for -3 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.

AJ Dillon, Week 3 against CLE: 12 of 77 snaps, 4 carries for 16 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for -2 yards.

AJ Dillon, Week 4 against DET: 11 of 75 snaps, 5 carries for 2 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 5 yards.

Through Week 6, Seth McGowan played 19 percent of IND snaps, took 13 percent of the carries, drew 2 percent of the targets and had 5 percent of the red zone chances.

Seth McGowan, Week 3 against HOU: 11 of 71 snaps, 4 carries for 14 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Seth McGowan, Week 4 against WAS: 19 of 66 snaps, 6 carries for 31 yards, 2 targets and 1 catch for 7 yards.

Seth McGowan, Week 5 against PIT: 19 of 71 snaps, 5 carries for 16 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 3 yards.

Seth McGowan, Week 6 against TEN: 19 of 83 snaps, 4 carries for 27 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, AJ Dillon played 7 games for PHI and scored 9.1 PPR points, 1.3 a game, finishing RB113.

He ran 12 times for 60 yards and 0 touchdowns, and caught 3 of 3 targets for 21 yards.

He was on the field for 11 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

• Start CJ Donaldson over AJ Dillon.
• Start Devin Singletary over AJ Dillon.
• Start Isaiah Davis over AJ Dillon.
• Start CJ Donaldson over Seth McGowan.
• Start Corey Kiner over Seth McGowan.
• Start Devin Singletary over Seth McGowan.