Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Sam Darnold?

Not on these numbers alone. Baker Mayfield projects 144 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 9 games) and Sam Darnold 138 (15.3 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Sam Darnold, 16.6 to 16.2 projected PPR points.

Start Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold? Week 8

Updated Oct 28, 1:37 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Latest

Oct 22, 4:48 PM ET: Barring setbacks, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield expected to start vs. Panthers (ESPN)

Start Baker Mayfield over Sam Darnold

Start

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · vs ATL

Market projects: 16.6; fantasy pts
ATL D vs QB: 18.0; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 28 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 96%; Through Week 7

Sit

Sam Darnold

QB · SEA · vs CHI

Market projects: 16.2; fantasy pts
CHI D vs QB: 19.9; 10th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 50 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 89%; Through Week 7

Should I drop Sam Darnold for Baker Mayfield?

Not on these numbers alone. Sam Darnold projects 138 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (15.3 a game over 9 games) and Baker Mayfield 144 (16.0 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Sam Darnold, 16.6 to 16.2 projected PPR points.

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Our Week 8 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Sam Darnold in Week 8.

Market-based projections have Baker Mayfield at 16.6 points and Sam Darnold at 16.2, a gap of 0.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Baker Mayfield's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Drafters take Baker Mayfield at ADP 133 and Sam Darnold at 155.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.6 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 0.2 touchdowns (6 market sources).

Player markets imply 16.2 fantasy points for Sam Darnold, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Sam Darnold is 234 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (11, 12 and 8 market sources).

That puts Baker Mayfield 0.4 points ahead of Sam Darnold on the market projections.

Week 8 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB host ATL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

ATL allowed 18.0 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 271 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against ATL, with 0.4 interceptions a game.

Sam Darnold and SEA host CHI on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

CHI allowed 19.9 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 10th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 241 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against CHI, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Sam Darnold has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is not on the injury report.

Sam Darnold is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, Baker Mayfield played 96 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 129 times and threw an average of 8.2 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 7 against CAR: 57 of 63 snaps, 7 of 11 passes for 64 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Through Week 7, Sam Darnold played 89 percent of SEA snaps, dropped back 196 times and threw an average of 7.0 air yards per attempt.

Sam Darnold, Week 4 against LAC: 60 of 60 snaps, 13 of 22 passes for 168 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 8 yards.

Sam Darnold, Week 5 against SF: 63 of 63 snaps, 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 1 carry for 5 yards.

Sam Darnold, Week 6 against DEN: 85 of 85 snaps, 27 of 49 passes for 278 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 2 carries for 19 yards.

Sam Darnold, Week 7 against KC: 69 of 69 snaps, 20 of 28 passes for 257 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 17 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Sam Darnold played 17 games for SEA and scored 249.4 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing QB13.

He completed 323 of 477 passes for 4048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and ran 35 times for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 96 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Sam Darnold for Baker Mayfield?
Not on these numbers alone. Sam Darnold projects 138 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (15.3 a game over 9 games) and Baker Mayfield 144 (16.0 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Sam Darnold, 16.6 to 16.2 projected PPR points.
Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Sam Darnold?
Not on these numbers alone. Baker Mayfield projects 144 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 9 games) and Sam Darnold 138 (15.3 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Sam Darnold, 16.6 to 16.2 projected PPR points.