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Start Rashod Bateman or Brian Thomas Jr.? Week 9

Updated Nov 3, 3:36 AM ET.

Start Brian Thomas Jr. over Rashod Bateman

Thomas projects lower, 3.5 to 4.0, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 72 for Thomas, 175 for Bateman.

Start

Brian Thomas Jr.

WR · JAX · at BAL

Market projects
3.5
fantasy pts
BAL D vs WR
35.8
7th most to WRs (2026)
Target share
12%
Through Week 8
Sit

Rashod Bateman

WR · BAL · vs JAX

Market projects
4.0
fantasy pts
JAX D vs WR
38.0
4th most to WRs (2026)
Snap share
70%
Through Week 8
Target share
13%
Through Week 8

Should I drop Rashod Bateman for Brian Thomas Jr.?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Brian Thomas Jr. projects 59 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (6.5 a game over 9 games), Rashod Bateman 43 (5.4 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Brian Thomas Jr. over Rashod Bateman.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Brian Thomas Jr. over Rashod Bateman in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Brian Thomas Jr. at 3.5 points and Rashod Bateman at 4.0, a gap of 0.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Brian Thomas Jr. still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 72 against 175, and that outweighs a gap this size.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 4.0 fantasy points for Rashod Bateman, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The market-based projection for Rashod Bateman is 17 receiving yards, 1-2 receptions and 0.1 touchdowns (11, 10 and 11 market sources).

Player markets imply 3.5 fantasy points for Brian Thomas Jr., with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The market-based projection for Brian Thomas Jr. is 11 receiving yards, 1-2 receptions and 0.2 touchdowns (9, 9 and 11 market sources).

That puts Rashod Bateman 0.4 points ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. on the market projections.

Week 9 matchups

Rashod Bateman and BAL host JAX on Thursday at 8:15 PM ET.

JAX allowed 38.0 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 4th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 210 yards and 0-1 touchdowns a game against JAX.

Brian Thomas Jr. and JAX visit BAL on Thursday at 8:15 PM ET.

BAL allowed 35.8 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 7 games, the 7th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 182 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game against BAL.

By points allowed to the position, Rashod Bateman has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Rashod Bateman is not on the injury report.

Brian Thomas Jr. is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, Rashod Bateman played 70 percent of BAL snaps, drew 13 percent of the targets, earned 23 percent of the air yards and had 4 percent of the red zone chances.

Rashod Bateman, Week 5 against ATL: 61 of 76 snaps, 6 targets and 5 catches for 62 yards.

Rashod Bateman, Week 6 against CLE: 17 of 57 snaps, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Rashod Bateman, Week 7 against CIN: 49 of 67 snaps, 4 targets and 2 catches for 33 yards.

Rashod Bateman, Week 8 against BUF: 3 targets and 1 catch for 22 yards.

Through Week 8, Brian Thomas Jr. drew 12 percent of the targets, earned 22 percent of the air yards and had 25 percent of the red zone chances.

Brian Thomas Jr., Week 8 against IND: 2 targets and 1 catch for 12 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Rashod Bateman played 13 games for BAL and scored 55.4 PPR points, 4.3 a game, finishing WR102.

He caught 19 of 38 targets for 224 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 8 red zone targets and 185 air yards.

He was on the field for 69 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Brian Thomas Jr. played 14 games for JAX and scored 138.8 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing WR42.

He caught 48 of 91 targets for 707 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 548 air yards.

He was on the field for 79 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Brian Thomas Jr., Week 18 of 2025 against TEN: 5 targets and 3 catches for 49 yards, 7.9 PPR points.

Brian Thomas Jr., Week 17 of 2025 against IND: 54 of 69 snaps, 7 targets and 4 catches for 39 yards, 7.9 PPR points.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Rashod Bateman for Brian Thomas Jr.?

    Yes, on the rest of the season. Brian Thomas Jr. projects 59 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (6.5 a game over 9 games), Rashod Bateman 43 (5.4 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Brian Thomas Jr. over Rashod Bateman.

  • Should I drop Brian Thomas Jr. for Rashod Bateman?

    No. Keep Brian Thomas Jr.: he projects 59 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (6.5 a game over 9 games), Rashod Bateman 43 (5.4 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Brian Thomas Jr. over Rashod Bateman.

Week 9 on the board

Elsewhere on the board