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Start John Metchie III or Brian Thomas Jr.? Week 9

Updated Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET.

Start John Metchie III over Brian Thomas Jr.

Start

John Metchie III

WR · CAR · vs DEN

Market projects
3.6
recent weeks avg
DEN D vs WR
27.8
7th fewest to WRs (2026)
Snap share
46%
Through Week 8
Target share
11%
Through Week 8
Sit

Brian Thomas Jr.

WR · JAX · at BAL

Market projects
3.5
fantasy pts
BAL D vs WR
35.8
7th most to WRs (2026)
Target share
12%
Through Week 8

Should I drop John Metchie III for Brian Thomas Jr.?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Brian Thomas Jr. projects 59 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (6.5 a game over 9 games), John Metchie III 33 (3.7 a game over 9 games). For Week 9 the call starts John Metchie III over Brian Thomas Jr. So make the move after his Week 9 game.

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Our Week 9 call

Start John Metchie III over Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 9.

Market-based projections have John Metchie III at 3.6 points and Brian Thomas Jr. at 3.5, a gap of 0.1. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for John Metchie III this week yet, so his 3.6 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 7 and 8 (3.3 and 3.9); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 9 player market is posted for John Metchie III yet. His market-based projections were 3.3 and 3.9 points in Weeks 7 and 8, an average of 3.6, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

Player markets imply 3.5 fantasy points for Brian Thomas Jr., with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The market-based projection for Brian Thomas Jr. is 11 receiving yards, 1-2 receptions and 0.2 touchdowns (9, 9 and 11 market sources).

That puts John Metchie III 0.1 points ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

John Metchie III and CAR host DEN on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

DEN allowed 27.8 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 7 games, the 7th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 136 yards and 0.4 touchdowns a game against DEN.

Brian Thomas Jr. and JAX visit BAL on Thursday at 8:15 PM ET.

BAL allowed 35.8 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 7 games, the 7th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 182 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game against BAL.

By points allowed to the position, Brian Thomas Jr. has the softer matchup.

Injury status

John Metchie III is not on the injury report.

Brian Thomas Jr. is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, John Metchie III played 46 percent of CAR snaps, drew 11 percent of the targets, earned 9 percent of the air yards and had 8 percent of the red zone chances.

John Metchie III, Week 7 against TB: 26 of 56 snaps, 4 targets and 2 catches for 20 yards.

John Metchie III, Week 8 against GB: 33 of 73 snaps, 3 targets and 3 catches for 14 yards.

Through Week 8, Brian Thomas Jr. drew 12 percent of the targets, earned 22 percent of the air yards and had 25 percent of the red zone chances.

Brian Thomas Jr., Week 8 against IND: 2 targets and 1 catch for 12 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, John Metchie III played 16 games for NYJ and scored 71.9 PPR points, 4.5 a game, finishing WR87.

He caught 33 of 48 targets for 274 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 5 red zone targets and 134 air yards.

He was on the field for 43 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

John Metchie III, Week 18 of 2025 against BUF: 4 targets and 3 catches for 20 yards, 5.0 PPR points.

In 2025, Brian Thomas Jr. played 14 games for JAX and scored 138.8 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing WR42.

He caught 48 of 91 targets for 707 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 548 air yards.

He was on the field for 79 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Brian Thomas Jr., Week 18 of 2025 against TEN: 5 targets and 3 catches for 49 yards, 7.9 PPR points.

Brian Thomas Jr., Week 17 of 2025 against IND: 54 of 69 snaps, 7 targets and 4 catches for 39 yards, 7.9 PPR points.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop John Metchie III for Brian Thomas Jr.?

    Yes, on the rest of the season. Brian Thomas Jr. projects 59 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (6.5 a game over 9 games), John Metchie III 33 (3.7 a game over 9 games). For Week 9 the call starts John Metchie III over Brian Thomas Jr. So make the move after his Week 9 game.

  • Should I drop Brian Thomas Jr. for John Metchie III?

    No. Keep Brian Thomas Jr.: he projects 59 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (6.5 a game over 9 games), John Metchie III 33 (3.7 a game over 9 games). For Week 9 the call starts John Metchie III over Brian Thomas Jr.

Week 9 on the board

Elsewhere on the board