Start Ted Hurst III or Brian Thomas Jr.? Week 8

Updated Oct 27, 3:21 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Ted Hurst III over Brian Thomas Jr.

Start

Ted Hurst III

WR · TB · vs ATL

Market projects: 5.3; recent weeks avg
ATL D vs WR: 34.4; 11th most to WRs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 66 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 56%; Through Week 7
Target share: 9%; Through Week 7

Sit

Brian Thomas Jr.

WR · JAX · vs IND

Market projects: 4.7; recent weeks avg
IND D vs WR: 29.0; 8th fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 31 of 100 at WR

Should I drop Ted Hurst III for Brian Thomas Jr.?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Brian Thomas Jr. projects 67 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (6.7 a game over 10 games), Ted Hurst III 55 (6.1 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Ted Hurst III over Brian Thomas Jr. So make the move after his Week 8 game.

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Our Week 8 call

Start Ted Hurst III over Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 8.

Market-based projections have Ted Hurst III at 5.3 points and Brian Thomas Jr. at 4.7, a gap of 0.5. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Ted Hurst III this week yet, so his 5.3 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 5, 6 and 7 (4.3, 3.5 and 8.0); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Brian Thomas Jr. this week yet, so his 4.7 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 5 and 6 (5.1 and 4.4); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 8 player market is posted for Ted Hurst III yet. His market-based projections were 4.3, 3.5 and 8.0 points in Weeks 5, 6 and 7, an average of 5.3, which stands in until his Week 8 market posts.

No Week 8 player market is posted for Brian Thomas Jr. yet. His market-based projections were 5.1 and 4.4 points in Weeks 5 and 6, an average of 4.7, which stands in until his Week 8 market posts.

That puts Ted Hurst III 0.5 points ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. on these projections.

Week 8 matchups

Ted Hurst III and TB host ATL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

ATL allowed 34.4 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 7 games, the 11th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 170 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game against ATL.

Brian Thomas Jr. and JAX host IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

IND allowed 29.0 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 7 games, the 8th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 142 yards and 0.7 touchdowns a game against IND.

By points allowed to the position, Ted Hurst III has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Ted Hurst III is not on the injury report.

Brian Thomas Jr. is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, Ted Hurst III played 56 percent of TB snaps, drew 9 percent of the targets, earned 14 percent of the air yards and had 6 percent of the red zone chances.

Ted Hurst III, Week 7 against CAR: 35 of 63 snaps, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Brian Thomas Jr. played 14 games for JAX and scored 138.8 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing WR42.

He caught 48 of 91 targets for 707 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets and 548 air yards.

He was on the field for 79 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Brian Thomas Jr., Week 18 of 2025 against TEN: 5 targets and 3 catches for 49 yards, 7.9 PPR points.

Brian Thomas Jr., Week 17 of 2025 against IND: 54 of 69 snaps, 7 targets and 4 catches for 39 yards, 7.9 PPR points.

Brian Thomas Jr., Week 16 of 2025 against DEN: 51 of 70 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 18 yards, 3.8 PPR points.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Ted Hurst III for Brian Thomas Jr.?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Brian Thomas Jr. projects 67 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (6.7 a game over 10 games), Ted Hurst III 55 (6.1 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Ted Hurst III over Brian Thomas Jr. So make the move after his Week 8 game.
Should I drop Brian Thomas Jr. for Ted Hurst III?
No. Keep Brian Thomas Jr.: he projects 67 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (6.7 a game over 10 games), Ted Hurst III 55 (6.1 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Ted Hurst III over Brian Thomas Jr.

Should I drop Ted Hurst III?