Start Joe Burrow or Baker Mayfield? Week 7

Updated Oct 22, 9:41 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Joe Burrow over Baker Mayfield

Start

Joe Burrow

QB · CIN · at BAL

Market projects: 17.2; fantasy pts
BAL D vs QB: 15.4; 11th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 51 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 5

Sit

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CAR · Questionable

Market projects: 16.0; fantasy pts
CAR D vs QB: 18.6; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 37 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 3

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Joe Burrow?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Joe Burrow projects 187 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.0 a game over 11 games), Baker Mayfield 160 (16.0 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Joe Burrow over Baker Mayfield, 17.2 to 16.0 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Joe Burrow over Baker Mayfield in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Joe Burrow at 17.2 points and Baker Mayfield at 16.0, a gap of 1.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take Joe Burrow at ADP 55 and Baker Mayfield at 133.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 17.2 fantasy points for Joe Burrow, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Joe Burrow is 263 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 7 rushing yards and 0.1 rushing touchdowns (13, 14, 10 and 13 market sources).

Player markets imply 16.0 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 216 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 17 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (12, 13, 10 and 12 market sources).

That puts Joe Burrow 1.2 points ahead of Baker Mayfield on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Joe Burrow and CIN visit BAL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

BAL allowed 15.4 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 11th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 226 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against BAL, with 0.5 interceptions a game.

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 18.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 237 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against CAR, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Joe Burrow is not on the injury report.

Baker Mayfield is listed as questionable with a thumb injury.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 5, Joe Burrow played 100 percent of CIN snaps, dropped back 204 times and threw an average of 7.2 air yards per attempt.

Joe Burrow, Week 2 against HOU: 60 of 60 snaps, 20 of 31 passes for 207 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Joe Burrow, Week 3 against PIT: 57 of 57 snaps, 28 of 37 passes for 282 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 13 yards.

Joe Burrow, Week 4 against JAX: 76 of 76 snaps, 39 of 54 passes for 428 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 3 carries for 6 yards.

Joe Burrow, Week 5 against MIA: 65 of 65 snaps, 23 of 32 passes for 190 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 12 yards.

Through Week 3, Baker Mayfield played 98 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 118 times and threw an average of 8.9 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Joe Burrow played 8 games for CIN and scored 139.5 PPR points, 17.4 a game, finishing QB29.

He completed 173 of 259 passes for 1809 yards, 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and ran 14 times for 41 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 86 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Joe Burrow?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Joe Burrow projects 187 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.0 a game over 11 games), Baker Mayfield 160 (16.0 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Joe Burrow over Baker Mayfield, 17.2 to 16.0 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.
Should I drop Joe Burrow for Baker Mayfield?
No. Keep Joe Burrow: he projects 187 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.0 a game over 11 games), Baker Mayfield 160 (16.0 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Joe Burrow over Baker Mayfield, 17.2 to 16.0 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.