Start Chris Olave or Justin Jefferson? Week 7

Updated Oct 20, 3:51 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Early kickoff: 9:30 AM ET in Paris, set your lineup before then.

Jefferson projects lower, 15.4 to 15.7, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 14 for Jefferson, 26 for Olave.

Start

Justin Jefferson

WR · MIN · vs IND

Market projects: 15.4; fantasy pts
IND D vs WR: 30.8; 13th fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: High; 86 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 74%; Through Week 5
Target share: 25%; Through Week 5

Sit

Chris Olave

WR · NO · vs PIT

Market projects: 15.7; fantasy pts
PIT D vs WR: 28.6; 6th fewest to WRs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 71 of 100 at WR
Snap share: 81%; Through Week 6
Target share: 27%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Justin Jefferson for Chris Olave?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Chris Olave projects 172 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 10 games), Justin Jefferson 102 (9.3 a game over 11 games). For Week 7 the call starts Justin Jefferson over Chris Olave. So make the move after his Week 7 game.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Justin Jefferson over Chris Olave in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Justin Jefferson at 15.4 points and Chris Olave at 15.7, a gap of 0.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Justin Jefferson still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 14 against 26, and that outweighs a gap this size.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 15.7 fantasy points for Chris Olave, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The market-based projection for Chris Olave is 76 receiving yards, 5-6 receptions and 0.4 touchdowns (12, 9 and 12 market sources).

Player markets imply 15.4 fantasy points for Justin Jefferson, with 100 percent of the markets a WR needs posted.

The market-based projection for Justin Jefferson is 73 receiving yards, 5-6 receptions and 0.4 touchdowns (10, 7 and 10 market sources).

That puts Chris Olave 0.4 points ahead of Justin Jefferson on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Chris Olave and NO host PIT on Sunday at 9:30 AM ET.

PIT allowed 28.6 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 6th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 142 yards and 0-1 touchdowns a game against PIT.

Justin Jefferson and MIN host IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

IND allowed 30.8 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 13th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 149 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against IND.

By points allowed to the position, Justin Jefferson has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Chris Olave is not on the injury report.

Justin Jefferson is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Chris Olave played 81 percent of NO snaps, drew 27 percent of the targets, earned 43 percent of the air yards and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

Chris Olave, Week 3 against LV: 62 of 74 snaps, 13 targets and 9 catches for 107 yards.

Chris Olave, Week 4 against ATL: 64 of 74 snaps, 12 targets and 8 catches for 116 yards.

Chris Olave, Week 5 against MIN: 41 of 45 snaps, 6 targets and 4 catches for 46 yards.

Chris Olave, Week 6 against NYG: 42 of 72 snaps, 7 targets and 4 catches for 43 yards, 1 touchdown.

Through Week 5, Justin Jefferson played 74 percent of MIN snaps, drew 25 percent of the targets, earned 35 percent of the air yards and had 15 percent of the red zone chances.

Justin Jefferson, Week 1 against GB: 60 of 65 snaps, 9 targets and 8 catches for 92 yards, 2 touchdowns.

Justin Jefferson, Week 2 against CHI: 52 of 52 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 55 yards.

Justin Jefferson, Week 3 against TB: 7 of 59 snaps, 2 targets and 2 catches for 32 yards.

Justin Jefferson, Week 5 against NO: 63 of 71 snaps, 1 carry for -11 yards, 7 targets and 6 catches for 79 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Chris Olave played 16 games for NO and scored 269.0 PPR points, 16.8 a game, finishing WR6.

He caught 100 of 156 targets for 1163 yards and 9 touchdowns, with 13 red zone targets and 874 air yards.

He was on the field for 84 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Justin Jefferson played 17 games for MIN and scored 201.5 PPR points, 11.9 a game, finishing WR21.

He caught 84 of 141 targets for 1048 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 17 red zone targets and 597 air yards.

He was on the field for 95 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Justin Jefferson for Chris Olave?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Chris Olave projects 172 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 10 games), Justin Jefferson 102 (9.3 a game over 11 games). For Week 7 the call starts Justin Jefferson over Chris Olave. So make the move after his Week 7 game.
Should I drop Chris Olave for Justin Jefferson?
No. Keep Chris Olave: he projects 172 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 10 games), Justin Jefferson 102 (9.3 a game over 11 games). For Week 7 the call starts Justin Jefferson over Chris Olave.