Start Sam Darnold or Patrick Mahomes? Week 7

Updated Oct 20, 3:46 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Mahomes projects lower, 16.4 to 16.5, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 107 for Mahomes, 155 for Darnold.

Start

Patrick Mahomes

QB · KC · at SEA

Market projects: 16.4; fantasy pts
SEA D vs QB: 12.3; 2nd fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 13 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Sit

Sam Darnold

QB · SEA · vs KC

Market projects: 16.5; fantasy pts
KC D vs QB: 12.6; 3rd fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 32 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 86%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Sam Darnold for Patrick Mahomes?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Patrick Mahomes projects 195 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.7 a game over 11 games), Sam Darnold 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Patrick Mahomes over Sam Darnold.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Patrick Mahomes over Sam Darnold in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Patrick Mahomes at 16.4 points and Sam Darnold at 16.5, a gap of 0.1. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Patrick Mahomes still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 107 against 155, and that outweighs a gap this size. Sam Darnold's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.5 fantasy points for Sam Darnold, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Sam Darnold is 225 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.1 rushing touchdowns (9, 12 and 12 market sources).

Player markets imply 16.4 fantasy points for Patrick Mahomes, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Patrick Mahomes is 221 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (11, 12 and 12 market sources).

That puts Sam Darnold 0.1 points ahead of Patrick Mahomes on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Sam Darnold and SEA host KC on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

KC allowed 12.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 3rd fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 224 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against KC, with an interception a game.

Patrick Mahomes and KC visit SEA on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

SEA allowed 12.3 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 2nd fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 157 yards and 1.3 touchdowns a game against SEA, with 1.2 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Sam Darnold has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Sam Darnold is not on the injury report.

Patrick Mahomes is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Sam Darnold played 86 percent of SEA snaps, dropped back 166 times and threw an average of 7.3 air yards per attempt.

Sam Darnold, Week 3 against WAS: 67 of 67 snaps, 31 of 45 passes for 379 yards, 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 1 carry for 5 yards.

Sam Darnold, Week 4 against LAC: 60 of 60 snaps, 13 of 22 passes for 168 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 8 yards.

Sam Darnold, Week 5 against SF: 63 of 63 snaps, 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 1 carry for 5 yards.

Sam Darnold, Week 6 against DEN: 85 of 85 snaps, 27 of 49 passes for 278 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 2 carries for 19 yards.

Through Week 6, Patrick Mahomes played 100 percent of KC snaps, dropped back 174 times and threw an average of 6.3 air yards per attempt.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 2 against IND: 80 of 80 snaps, 32 of 47 passes for 382 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 17 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 3 against MIA: 52 of 52 snaps, 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 4 against LV: 60 of 60 snaps, 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Patrick Mahomes, Week 6 against LAC: 61 of 61 snaps, 23 of 30 passes for 272 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 3 carries for 19 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Sam Darnold played 17 games for SEA and scored 249.4 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing QB13.

He completed 323 of 477 passes for 4048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and ran 35 times for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 96 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Patrick Mahomes played 14 games for KC and scored 296.7 PPR points, 21.2 a game, finishing QB11.

He completed 315 of 502 passes for 3587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 64 times for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Sam Darnold for Patrick Mahomes?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Patrick Mahomes projects 195 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.7 a game over 11 games), Sam Darnold 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Patrick Mahomes over Sam Darnold.
Should I drop Patrick Mahomes for Sam Darnold?
No. Keep Patrick Mahomes: he projects 195 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.7 a game over 11 games), Sam Darnold 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Patrick Mahomes over Sam Darnold.