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Should I start Aaron Jones Sr. or Caleb Douglas in Week 9?

Updated Nov 4, 7:56 AM ET.

Start Caleb Douglas: 80 percent of the snaps and 16 percent of the targets over their last 3 games, against Aaron Jones Sr.'s 32 percent of the snaps and 30 percent of the carries. No market projection is posted on either of them this week, so this is a usage call, and a lower confidence one than a call made on a projection. What follows is what each of them has done.

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Both players' season market-based projection, their usage this season and their last full season's numbers.

RB24 · MIN · bye 6

2026 vs carries line 5-2

Overall rank
58

WR29 · MIA · bye 6

Market-based projection
9.2 pts a game

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The gap

  • Board size306 draftable players

Draft data is not current for these two, so the figures that depend on it are left out. The call above comes from each player's usage.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Aaron Jones Sr., and the board ranks him 58th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Caleb Douglas, and the board ranks him 62nd overall on the rest of his evidence.

The market-based projections

The market has Aaron Jones Sr. at 8.3 PPR points a game off 2 markets across 8 market sources. That is 70 percent of what a running back's projection needs, so it is a fragment of one rather than a projection.

Caleb Douglas's market-based projection is 9.2 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 8 market sources. That is the 81st highest figure of the 219 players with a market-based projection.

Aaron Jones Sr.'s projection is not complete, so the two figures are not set against each other here.

This season through Week 8

Through Week 8, Aaron Jones Sr. has been on the field for 32 percent of MIN snaps, taken 30 percent of the carries, drawn 6 percent of the targets and had 20 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 0 of the offence's 17 third down targets, had 0 of its 2 chances inside the five and seen 0 of its 2 two minute targets.

His 3 targets have come 0.3 yards behind the line of scrimmage on average.

In Week 7 against IND he carried 8 times for 26 yards, caught 1 of 1 target for 0 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against DET he carried 5 times for 22 yards, caught 2 of 2 targets for 18 yards and did not score.

Through Week 8, Caleb Douglas has been on the field for 82 percent of MIA snaps, drawn 19 percent of the targets and had 7 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 8 of the offence's 30 third down targets, had 0 of its 8 chances inside the five and seen 5 of its 14 two minute targets.

His 19 targets have averaged 12.3 air yards.

In Week 2 against SF he caught 2 of 3 targets for 19 yards and did not score.

In Week 7 against NYJ he caught 2 of 3 targets for 70 yards and scored 2 touchdowns.

In Week 8 against NE he caught 4 of 6 targets for 43 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Aaron Jones Sr. played 12 games and scored 118.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing RB41.

He carried 132 times for 548 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 28 of 41 targets for 199 more yards.

That came to 11.0 carries a game at 4.2 yards a carry and 2.3 catches a game.

He was on the field for 55 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Caleb Douglas is a rookie, so there is no NFL season behind him to price him against.

Side by side

Aaron Jones Sr. is a running back and Caleb Douglas a wide receiver, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Both are off in Week 6, so a roster holding the pair has that one week to cover twice.

What would change the answer

Aaron Jones Sr. has only a partial projection, so the market half of this page is whole for only one of them.

Should I drop Aaron Jones Sr.?

Both players in full

Week 9 on the board

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