Start AJ Barner or Jake Ferguson? Week 9

Our Week 9 call

Start AJ Barner over Jake Ferguson in Week 9.

Market-based projections have AJ Barner at 6.9 points and Jake Ferguson at 6.3, a gap of 0.7. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Jake Ferguson this week yet, so his 6.3 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6, 7 and 8 (7.5, 6.1 and 5.1); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 6.9 fantasy points for AJ Barner, with 100 percent of the markets a TE needs posted.

The market-based projection for AJ Barner is 25 receiving yards, 2-3 receptions and 0.3 touchdowns (7, 7 and 8 market sources).

No Week 9 player market is posted for Jake Ferguson yet. His market-based projections were 7.6, 6.1 and 5.1 points in Weeks 6, 7 and 8, an average of 6.3, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

The market-based projection for Jake Ferguson is 0.3 touchdowns (8 market sources).

That puts AJ Barner 0.7 points ahead of Jake Ferguson on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

AJ Barner and SEA host ARI on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

ARI allowed 16.1 fantasy points a game to TEs this season over 8 games, the 9th most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 56 yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game against ARI.

Jake Ferguson and DAL visit IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

IND allowed 14.4 fantasy points a game to TEs this season over 8 games, the 12th most in the league.

Tight ends caught passes for 51 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against IND.

By points allowed to the position, AJ Barner has the softer matchup.

Injury status

AJ Barner is not on the injury report.

Jake Ferguson is listed as questionable with a ankle injury.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, AJ Barner played 89 percent of SEA snaps, drew 14 percent of the targets, earned 4 percent of the air yards and had 12 percent of the red zone chances.

AJ Barner, Week 5 against SF: 60 of 63 snaps, 5 targets and 3 catches for 20 yards.

AJ Barner, Week 6 against DEN: 79 of 85 snaps, 4 targets and 3 catches for 16 yards.

AJ Barner, Week 7 against KC: 55 of 69 snaps, 3 carries for 4 yards, 5 targets and 4 catches for 42 yards.

AJ Barner, Week 8 against CHI: 60 of 63 snaps, 5 targets and 2 catches for 23 yards.

Through Week 8, Jake Ferguson played 58 percent of DAL snaps, drew 9 percent of the targets, earned 5 percent of the air yards and had 5 percent of the red zone chances.

Jake Ferguson, Week 5 against TB: 50 of 60 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 19 yards.

Jake Ferguson, Week 6 against GB: 42 of 78 snaps, 3 targets and 2 catches for 13 yards.

Jake Ferguson, Week 7 against PHI: 38 of 68 snaps, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Jake Ferguson, Week 8 against ARI: 4 of 74 snaps, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, AJ Barner played 17 games for SEA and scored 147.3 PPR points, 8.7 a game, finishing TE14.

He caught 52 of 68 targets for 519 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 12 red zone targets and 248 air yards.

He was on the field for 78 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Jake Ferguson played 17 games for DAL and scored 188.1 PPR points, 11.1 a game, finishing TE5.

He caught 82 of 102 targets for 600 yards and 8 touchdowns, with 23 red zone targets and 293 air yards.

He was on the field for 67 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

• Start Brenton Strange over AJ Barner.
• Start Cade Otton over AJ Barner.
• Start AJ Barner over Charlie Kolar.
• Start Cade Otton over Jake Ferguson.
• Start Jake Ferguson over Charlie Kolar.
• Start Jake Ferguson over Chig Okonkwo.