Should I start Baker Mayfield or Justice Hill in Week 9?

The market-based projections

Baker Mayfield's market-based projection is 15.8 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 14 market sources. That is the 33rd highest figure of the 225 players with a market-based projection.

Justice Hill's market-based projection is 6.5 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 13 market sources. That is the 118th highest figure of the 225 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Baker Mayfield, and the board ranks him 107th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 20.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Justice Hill, and the board ranks him 106th overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season through Week 8

Through Week 8, Baker Mayfield has been on the field for 97 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 134 times and thrown 8.4 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 23 of 134 dropbacks and scrambled 10 times.

In Week 3 against MIN he completed 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception and ran 2 times for 6 yards.

In Week 7 against CAR he completed 7 of 11 passes for 64 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions and ran 1 time for 1 yards.

In Week 8 against ATL he completed 0 of 3 passes for 0 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 3 times for 15 yards.

Through Week 8, Justice Hill has been on the field for 43 percent of BAL snaps, taken 11 percent of the carries, drawn 11 percent of the targets and had 4 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 10 of the offence's 66 third down targets, had 0 of its 26 chances inside the five and seen 7 of its 47 two minute targets.

His 25 targets have come 1.1 yards behind the line of scrimmage on average.

In Week 6 against CLE he carried 0 times for 0 yards, caught 3 of 3 targets for 9 yards and did not score.

In Week 7 against CIN he carried 3 times for 7 yards, caught 3 of 4 targets for 26 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against BUF he carried 3 times for 15 yards, caught 4 of 8 targets for 20 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Baker Mayfield played 17 games and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He threw for 3693 yards on 543 attempts with 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

That came to 31.9 attempts a game at 6.8 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Justice Hill played 10 games and scored 65.2 PPR points, 6.5 a game, finishing RB60.

He carried 18 times for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 21 of 27 targets for 169 more yards.

That came to 1.8 carries a game at 5.2 yards a carry and 2.1 catches a game.

He was on the field for 37 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Baker Mayfield was available for 7 games more.

Side by side

In 2025 Baker Mayfield scored 16.6 PPR points a game and Justice Hill 6.5, 10.1 a game between them.

Baker Mayfield finished QB12 and Justice Hill RB60, which are two different ladders.

Baker Mayfield is a quarterback and Justice Hill a running back, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Baker Mayfield is off in Week 10 and Justice Hill in Week 13, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

9.3 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.