Start Justice Hill or Kenny Gainwell? Week 9

Our Week 9 call

Start Kenny Gainwell over Justice Hill in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Kenny Gainwell at 6.0 points and Justice Hill at 6.8, a gap of 0.8. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Kenny Gainwell still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 95 against 206, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for Kenny Gainwell this week yet, so his 6.0 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6, 7 and 8 (6.5, 6.2 and 5.5); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 6.8 fantasy points for Justice Hill, with 100 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Justice Hill is 18 rushing yards, 13 receiving yards, 2-3 receptions and 0.2 touchdowns (11, 11, 10 and 11 market sources).

No Week 9 player market is posted for Kenny Gainwell yet. His market-based projections were 6.5, 6.2 and 5.6 points in Weeks 6, 7 and 8, an average of 6.1, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

That puts Justice Hill 0.8 points ahead of Kenny Gainwell on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Justice Hill and BAL host JAX on Thursday at 8:15 PM ET.

JAX allowed 17.3 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 6 games, the 2nd fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 52 yards and 0-1 touchdowns a game against JAX and caught passes for 38 more yards.

Kenny Gainwell and TB visit CHI on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

CHI allowed 18.6 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 7 games, the 6th fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 74 yards and 0.4 touchdowns a game against CHI and caught passes for 35 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, Kenny Gainwell has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Justice Hill is listed as questionable with a groin injury.

Kenny Gainwell is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, Justice Hill played 43 percent of BAL snaps, took 11 percent of the carries, drew 11 percent of the targets and had 4 percent of the red zone chances.

Justice Hill, Week 5 against ATL: 35 of 76 snaps, 4 carries for 73 yards, 4 targets and 2 catches for 5 yards.

Justice Hill, Week 6 against CLE: 24 of 57 snaps, 0 carries for 0 yards, 3 targets and 3 catches for 9 yards.

Justice Hill, Week 7 against CIN: 31 of 67 snaps, 3 carries for 7 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 26 yards.

Justice Hill, Week 8 against BUF: 3 carries for 15 yards, 8 targets and 4 catches for 20 yards.

Through Week 8, Kenny Gainwell played 35 percent of TB snaps, took 22 percent of the carries, drew 9 percent of the targets and had 8 percent of the red zone chances.

Kenny Gainwell, Week 5 against DAL: 26 of 72 snaps, 4 carries for 18 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 10 yards.

Kenny Gainwell, Week 6 against PIT: 11 of 74 snaps, 2 carries for 17 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 7 yards.

Kenny Gainwell, Week 7 against CAR: 19 of 63 snaps, 14 carries for 88 yards, 0 targets and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Kenny Gainwell, Week 8 against ATL: 25 carries for 140 yards, 1 target and 0 catches for 0 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Justice Hill played 10 games for BAL and scored 65.2 PPR points, 6.5 a game, finishing RB60.

He ran 18 times for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 21 of 27 targets for 169 yards.

He was on the field for 37 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Kenny Gainwell played 17 games for PIT and scored 222.3 PPR points, 13.1 a game, finishing RB16.

He ran 114 times for 537 yards and 5 touchdowns, and caught 73 of 85 targets for 486 yards.

He was on the field for 49 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

• Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Justice Hill.
• Start Alvin Kamara over Justice Hill.
• Start Blake Corum over Justice Hill.
• Start Kenny Gainwell over Alvin Kamara.
• Start Kenny Gainwell over Corey Kiner.
• Start Kenny Gainwell over Dylan Sampson.