Trevor Lawrence or Baker Mayfield: who to draft first

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price Trevor Lawrence at 16.6 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 18 books. That is the 24th highest figure of the 182 players the books price.

The player markets price Baker Mayfield at 16.5 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 18 books. That is the 26th highest figure of the 182 players the books price.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Trevor Lawrence: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 93rd overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 22.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Baker Mayfield: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 94th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 44.

This season through Week 1

Through Week 1, Trevor Lawrence has been on the field for 88 percent of JAX snaps, dropped back 24 times and thrown 10.5 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 3 of 24 dropbacks.

In Week 1 against CLE he completed 18 of 23 passes for 245 yards, threw 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 2 times for 3 yards.

Through Week 1, Baker Mayfield has been on the field for 100 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 36 times and thrown 5.1 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 6 of 36 dropbacks and scrambled 4 times.

In Week 1 against CIN he completed 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 4 times for 31 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Trevor Lawrence played 17 games and scored 350.2 PPR points, 20.6 a game, finishing QB4.

He threw for 4007 yards on 560 attempts with 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and ran for 359 yards and 9 touchdowns.

That came to 32.9 attempts a game at 7.2 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Baker Mayfield played 17 games and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He threw for 3693 yards on 543 attempts with 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

That came to 31.9 attempts a game at 6.8 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Both were available for 17 games that season.

Head to head

In 2025 Trevor Lawrence scored 20.6 PPR points a game and Baker Mayfield 16.6, 4.0 a game between them.

Trevor Lawrence finished QB4 that year and Baker Mayfield QB12.

Trevor Lawrence had 17 more pass attempts than Baker Mayfield, 560 to 543.

Trevor Lawrence had 314 more passing yards than Baker Mayfield, 4007 to 3693.

This season Baker Mayfield holds the bigger snap share, 100 percent against 88 percent.

Their target share this season is the same, 0 percent each.

Byes and availability

Trevor Lawrence is off in Week 7 and Baker Mayfield in Week 10, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.0 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.