Should I start Deebo Samuel Sr. or Caleb Douglas in Week 10?

The market-based projections

Deebo Samuel Sr.'s market-based projection is 9.8 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 7 market sources. That is the 77th highest figure of the 214 players with a market-based projection.

Caleb Douglas's market-based projection is 9.2 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 5 market sources. That is the 88th highest figure of the 214 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Deebo Samuel Sr., and the board ranks him 67th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Caleb Douglas, and the board ranks him 78th overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season so far

Through Week 5, Deebo Samuel Sr. has been on the field for 57 percent of SF snaps, drawn 15 percent of the targets and had 10 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 2 of the offence's 35 third down targets, had 2 of its 14 chances inside the five and seen 2 of its 21 two minute targets.

His 20 targets have averaged 2.6 air yards.

In Week 3 against ARI he carried 2 times for 14 yards and did not score.

In Week 4 against DEN he carried 3 times for 44 yards, caught 5 of 6 targets for 26 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 5 against SEA he carried 2 times for 4 yards, caught 2 of 3 targets for 21 yards and did not score.

Through Week 9, Caleb Douglas has been on the field for 81 percent of MIA snaps, drawn 22 percent of the targets and had 6 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 10 of the offence's 37 third down targets, had 0 of its 8 chances inside the five and seen 6 of its 16 two minute targets.

His 27 targets have averaged 12.3 air yards.

In Week 7 against NYJ he caught 2 of 3 targets for 70 yards and scored 2 touchdowns.

In Week 8 against NE he caught 4 of 6 targets for 43 yards and did not score.

In Week 9 against DET he caught 6 of 8 targets for 70 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Deebo Samuel Sr. played 16 games and scored 188.2 PPR points, 11.8 a game, finishing WR25.

He caught 72 of 99 targets for 727 yards and 5 touchdowns, with 11 red zone targets.

That came to 6.2 targets a game, a 73 percent catch rate and 10.1 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 72 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Caleb Douglas is a rookie, so there is no NFL season behind him to price him against.

Head to head

This season Caleb Douglas holds the bigger snap share, 81 percent against 57 percent.

This season Caleb Douglas holds the bigger target share, 22 percent against 15 percent.

Byes and availability

Deebo Samuel Sr. is off in Week 8 and Caleb Douglas in Week 6, so either can cover the other's bye.

Deebo Samuel Sr. is listed as questionable on the injury report.

What would change the answer

0.6 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.