Should I start Christian Watson or Derrick Henry in Week 10?

The market-based projections

Christian Watson's market-based projection is 15.0 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 13 market sources. That is the 35th highest figure of the 213 players with a market-based projection.

Derrick Henry's market-based projection is 14.8 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 8 market sources. That is the 41st highest figure of the 213 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Christian Watson, and the board ranks him 23rd overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Derrick Henry, and the board ranks him 24th overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season through Week 9

Through Week 9, Christian Watson has been on the field for 77 percent of GB snaps, drawn 22 percent of the targets and had 7 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 23 of the offence's 94 third down targets, had 3 of its 23 chances inside the five and seen 6 of its 38 two minute targets.

His 74 targets have averaged 14.5 air yards.

In Week 7 against DET he caught 5 of 8 targets for 57 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against CAR he caught 8 of 10 targets for 113 yards and did not score.

In Week 9 against NE he caught 7 of 8 targets for 171 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

Through Week 9, Derrick Henry has been on the field for 55 percent of BAL snaps, taken 68 percent of the carries, drawn 6 percent of the targets and had 51 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 1 of the offence's 72 third down targets, had 16 of its 26 chances inside the five and seen 0 of its 49 two minute targets.

His 14 targets have come 2.4 yards behind the line of scrimmage on average.

In Week 7 against CIN he carried 17 times for 45 yards, caught 1 of 2 targets for 4 yards and did not score.

In Week 8 against BUF he carried 11 times for 53 yards, caught 2 of 2 targets for 7 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 9 against JAX he carried 17 times for 57 yards and did not score.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Christian Watson played 10 games and scored 132.4 PPR points, 13.2 a game, finishing WR46.

He caught 35 of 55 targets for 611 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 6 red zone targets.

That came to 5-6 targets a game, a 64 percent catch rate and 18 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 68 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Derrick Henry played 17 games and scored 279.5 PPR points, 16.4 a game, finishing RB8.

He carried 307 times for 1595 yards and 16 touchdowns, and caught 15 of 21 targets for 150 more yards.

That came to 18.1 carries a game at 5.2 yards a carry and 0.9 catches a game.

He was on the field for 54 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Derrick Henry was available for 7 games more.

Side by side

In 2025 Derrick Henry scored 16.4 PPR points a game and Christian Watson 13.2, 3.2 a game between them.

Christian Watson finished WR46 and Derrick Henry RB8, which are two different ladders.

Christian Watson is a wide receiver and Derrick Henry a running back, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Christian Watson is off in Week 11 and Derrick Henry in Week 13, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

0.2 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.