Jake Ferguson or Darren Waller: who should I start in Week 3?

What the sportsbooks price

The player markets price Jake Ferguson at 8.2 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 15 books. That is the 118th highest figure of the 176 players the books price.

The player markets price Darren Waller at 6.1 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 15 books. That is the 145th highest figure of the 176 players the books price.

Where the draft room stands

Drafters have formed no consensus on Jake Ferguson: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 116th overall on the rest of his evidence.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 147.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Darren Waller: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 142nd overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season through Week 2

Through Week 2, Jake Ferguson has been on the field for 68 percent of DAL snaps, drawn 10 percent of the targets and had 16 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 1 of the offence's 16 third down targets, had 1 of its 7 chances inside the five and seen 1 of its 5 two minute targets.

His 6 targets have averaged 5.8 air yards.

In Week 1 against NYG he caught 2 of 2 targets for 6 yards and did not score.

In Week 2 against WAS he caught 4 of 4 targets for 43 yards and scored 2 touchdowns.

Through Week 2, Darren Waller has been on the field for 40 percent of CAR snaps, drawn 8 percent of the targets and had 7 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 1 of the offence's 15 third down targets, had 0 of its 7 chances inside the five and seen 3 of its 7 two minute targets.

His 5 targets have averaged 6.8 air yards.

In Week 1 against CHI he caught 2 of 2 targets for 28 yards and did not score.

In Week 2 against ATL he caught 3 of 3 targets for 33 yards and scored 2 touchdowns.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Jake Ferguson played 17 games and scored 188.1 PPR points, 11.1 a game, finishing TE5.

He caught 82 of 102 targets for 600 yards and 8 touchdowns, with 23 red zone targets.

That came to 6.0 targets a game, a 80 percent catch rate and 7.3 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 67 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Darren Waller played 9 games and scored 88.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing TE33.

He caught 24 of 34 targets for 283 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 7 red zone targets.

That came to 3.8 targets a game, a 71 percent catch rate and 11.8 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 45 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Jake Ferguson was available for 8 games more.

Head to head

In 2025 Jake Ferguson scored 11.1 PPR points a game and Darren Waller 9.9, 1.2 a game between them.

Jake Ferguson finished TE5 that year and Darren Waller TE33.

Jake Ferguson had 68 more targets than Darren Waller, 102 to 34.

Jake Ferguson had 317 more receiving yards than Darren Waller, 600 to 283.

This season Jake Ferguson holds the bigger snap share, 68 percent against 40 percent.

This season Jake Ferguson holds the bigger target share, 10 percent against 8 percent.

Byes and availability

Jake Ferguson is off in Week 14 and Darren Waller in Week 5, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

2.1 points a game is the entire case. The books restate it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the books when it does.