Should I start Michael Penix Jr. or Darren Waller in Week 10?

The market-based projections

Michael Penix Jr.'s market-based projection is 14.7 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 14 market sources. That is the 43rd highest figure of the 214 players with a market-based projection.

Darren Waller's market-based projection is 6.9 PPR points a game, built from 3 markets across 13 market sources. That is the 100th highest figure of the 214 players with a market-based projection.

Where the draft room stands

Live drafts hold no current pick on Michael Penix Jr., and the board ranks him 120th overall on the rest of his evidence.

Live drafts hold no current pick on Darren Waller, and the board ranks him 122nd overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season through Week 9

Through Week 9, Michael Penix Jr. has been on the field for 99 percent of ATL snaps, dropped back 93 times and thrown 7.1 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 0 of 93 dropbacks and scrambled 5 times.

In Week 7 against SF he completed 25 of 33 passes for 213 yards, threw 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 2 times for 2 yards.

In Week 8 against TB he completed 8 of 24 passes for 125 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 4 interceptions and ran 5 times for 11 yards.

In Week 9 against CIN he completed 20 of 31 passes for 162 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception and ran 3 times for 50 yards.

Through Week 9, Darren Waller has been on the field for 49 percent of CAR snaps, drawn 12 percent of the targets and had 7 percent of the red zone chances.

He has taken 15 of the offence's 61 third down targets, had 0 of its 15 chances inside the five and seen 8 of its 37 two minute targets.

His 35 targets have averaged 9.7 air yards.

In Week 7 against TB he caught 1 of 2 targets for 50 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

In Week 8 against GB he caught 1 of 2 targets for 11 yards and did not score.

In Week 9 against DEN he caught 8 of 10 targets for 90 yards and scored 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Michael Penix Jr. played 9 games and scored 123.3 PPR points, 13.7 a game, finishing QB33.

He threw for 1982 yards on 276 attempts with 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and ran for 70 yards and 1 touchdown.

That came to 30.7 attempts a game at 7.2 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 93 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Darren Waller played 9 games and scored 88.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing TE33.

He caught 24 of 34 targets for 283 yards and 6 touchdowns, with 7 red zone targets.

That came to 3.8 targets a game, a 71 percent catch rate and 11.8 yards a catch.

He was on the field for 45 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Both were available for 9 games that season.

Side by side

In 2025 Michael Penix Jr. scored 13.7 PPR points a game and Darren Waller 9.9, 3.8 a game between them.

Michael Penix Jr. finished QB33 and Darren Waller TE33, which are two different ladders.

Michael Penix Jr. is a quarterback and Darren Waller a tight end, so the question is which slot you fill first rather than which of them is better.

Byes and availability

Michael Penix Jr. is off in Week 11 and Darren Waller in Week 5, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

7.8 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when live drafts hold these two again they can order them differently from the projection, and this page will follow the drafts rather than the market-based projection when they do.