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Start Drew Lock or Michael Penix Jr.? Week 10

Updated Nov 10, 8:36 PM ET.

Latest

  • : Seahawks to start QB Drew Lock vs. Raiders, giving Sam Darnold more time to heal (ESPN)
  • : Drew Lock: Listed Questionable (Oblique) (Sleeper injury feed)
  • : Seahawks' Quenton Nelson, Sam Darnold among starters ruled out (ESPN)

Start Michael Penix Jr. over Drew Lock

Start

Michael Penix Jr.

QB · ATL · vs KC

Market projects
15.0
recent weeks avg
KC D vs QB
13.9
7th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside
Limited
15 of 100 at QB
Snap share
99%
Through Week 9
Sit

Drew Lock

QB · SEA · at LV · Questionable

Market projects
14.8
fantasy pts
LV D vs QB
20.6
5th most to QBs (2026)
Upside
Limited
33 of 100 at QB
Snap share
97%
Through Week 9

Should I drop Michael Penix Jr. for Drew Lock?

Not on these numbers alone. Michael Penix Jr. projects 103 market-implied PPR points from Week 10 through Week 17 (14.7 a game over 7 games) and Drew Lock 105 (15.0 a game over 7 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 10 the call starts Michael Penix Jr. over Drew Lock. Drew Lock is listed questionable.

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Michael Penix Jr. rookie cards

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Our Week 10 call

Start Michael Penix Jr. over Drew Lock in Week 10.

Market-based projections have Michael Penix Jr. at 15.0 points and Drew Lock at 14.8, a gap of 0.2. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Michael Penix Jr. this week yet, so his 15.0 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 7, 8 and 9 (15.3, 14.6 and 15.0); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 10 player market is posted for Michael Penix Jr. yet. His market-based projections were 15.3, 14.6 and 15.0 points in Weeks 7, 8 and 9, an average of 15.0, which stands in until his Week 10 market posts.

Player markets imply 14.8 fantasy points for Drew Lock, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Drew Lock is 203 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 0-1 interceptions, 6 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (7, 7, 5, 6 and 7 market sources).

That puts Michael Penix Jr. 0.2 points ahead of Drew Lock on these projections.

Week 10 matchups

Michael Penix Jr. and ATL host KC on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

KC allowed 13.9 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 7th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 228 yards and a touchdown a game against KC, with 0.9 interceptions a game.

Drew Lock and SEA visit LV on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

LV allowed 20.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 8 games, the 5th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 251 yards and 2.3 touchdowns a game against LV, with 0.8 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Drew Lock has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Michael Penix Jr. is not on the injury report.

Drew Lock is listed as questionable with a oblique injury.

Usage before Week 10

Through Week 9, Michael Penix Jr. played 99 percent of ATL snaps, dropped back 93 times and threw an average of 7.1 air yards per attempt.

Michael Penix Jr., Week 7 against SF: 68 of 69 snaps, 25 of 33 passes for 213 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 2 yards.

Michael Penix Jr., Week 8 against TB: 53 of 53 snaps, 8 of 24 passes for 125 yards, 0 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, 5 carries for 11 yards.

Michael Penix Jr., Week 9 against CIN: 62 of 62 snaps, 20 of 31 passes for 162 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 carries for 50 yards.

Through Week 9, Drew Lock played 97 percent of SEA snaps, dropped back 80 times and threw an average of 6.9 air yards per attempt.

Drew Lock, Week 1 against NE: 45 of 50 snaps, 16 of 22 passes for 187 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 14 yards.

Drew Lock, Week 2 against ARI: 70 of 70 snaps, 19 of 26 passes for 235 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Drew Lock, Week 9 against ARI: 67 of 67 snaps, 19 of 28 passes for 175 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 18 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Michael Penix Jr. played 9 games for ATL and scored 123.3 PPR points, 13.7 a game, finishing QB33.

He completed 166 of 276 passes for 1982 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and ran 21 times for 70 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 93 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Drew Lock played 5 games for SEA and scored 0.1 PPR points, 0.0 a game, finishing QB73.

He completed 2 of 3 passes for 15 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, and ran 6 times for -5 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 4 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 10 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 10, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Michael Penix Jr. for Drew Lock?

    Not on these numbers alone. Michael Penix Jr. projects 103 market-implied PPR points from Week 10 through Week 17 (14.7 a game over 7 games) and Drew Lock 105 (15.0 a game over 7 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 10 the call starts Michael Penix Jr. over Drew Lock. Drew Lock is listed questionable.

  • Should I drop Drew Lock for Michael Penix Jr.?

    Not on these numbers alone. Drew Lock projects 105 market-implied PPR points from Week 10 through Week 17 (15.0 a game over 7 games) and Michael Penix Jr. 103 (14.7 a game over 7 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 10 the call starts Michael Penix Jr. over Drew Lock. Drew Lock is listed questionable.

Week 10 on the board

Elsewhere on the board