Josh Allen or Matthew Stafford: who should I start in Week 5?

What the player markets price

The player markets price Josh Allen at 22.8 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 16 market sources. That is the 2nd highest figure of the 183 players the market prices.

The player markets price Matthew Stafford at 20.6 PPR points a game, built from 5 markets across 16 market sources. That is the 8th highest figure of the 183 players the market prices.

Where the draft room has them

Josh Allen goes at ADP 1, an average pick of 24.3, and the board has him QB1 in tier 1.

His earliest recorded pick is 1 and his latest 37, a standard deviation of 9.0 picks.

He appears in 17 recorded drafts across the formats the consensus sample covers.

In 2QB drafts he goes at ADP 2.

Drafters have formed no consensus on Matthew Stafford: he carries no ADP, and the board ranks him 41st overall on the rest of his evidence.

This season through Week 4

Through Week 4, Josh Allen has been on the field for 100 percent of BUF snaps, dropped back 136 times and thrown 9.8 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 21 of 136 dropbacks and scrambled 8 times.

In Week 2 against DET he completed 20 of 31 passes for 248 yards, threw 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions and ran 11 times for 72 yards.

In Week 3 against LAC he completed 16 of 26 passes for 204 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions and ran 7 times for 23 yards.

In Week 4 against NE he completed 23 of 33 passes for 253 yards, threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception and ran 5 times for 4 yards.

Through Week 4, Matthew Stafford has been on the field for 97 percent of LAR snaps, dropped back 169 times and thrown 9.6 air yards an attempt.

He has been sacked or hit on 28 of 169 dropbacks and scrambled 4 times.

In Week 2 against NYG he completed 22 of 30 passes for 327 yards, threw 4 touchdowns and 1 interception and ran 1 time for 2 yards.

In Week 3 against DEN he completed 30 of 53 passes for 390 yards, threw 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions and ran 2 times for 13 yards.

In Week 4 against PHI he completed 32 of 51 passes for 317 yards, threw 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions and ran 2 times for 11 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025 Josh Allen played 17 games and scored 374.6 PPR points, 22.0 a game, finishing QB1.

He threw for 3668 yards on 460 attempts with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and ran for 579 yards and 14 touchdowns.

That came to 27.1 attempts a game at 8.0 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

In 2025 Matthew Stafford played 17 games and scored 358.4 PPR points, 21.1 a game, finishing QB3.

He threw for 4707 yards on 597 attempts with 46 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and ran for 1 yards and 0 touchdowns.

That came to 35.1 attempts a game at 7.9 yards an attempt.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the snaps in the games he played.

Both were available for 17 games that season.

Head to head

In 2025 Josh Allen scored 22.0 PPR points a game and Matthew Stafford 21.1, 1.0 a game between them.

Josh Allen finished QB1 that year and Matthew Stafford QB3.

Matthew Stafford had 137 more pass attempts than Josh Allen, 597 to 460.

Matthew Stafford had 1039 more passing yards than Josh Allen, 4707 to 3668.

This season Josh Allen holds the bigger snap share, 100 percent against 97 percent.

This season Josh Allen holds the bigger target share, 1 percent against 0 percent.

Byes and availability

Josh Allen is off in Week 7 and Matthew Stafford in Week 11, so either can cover the other's bye.

What would change the answer

2.3 points a game is the entire case. The market restates it every week, and a line that moves moves the order with it.

The draft market is the half that is missing: when the consensus sample holds these two again it can order them differently from the price, and this page will follow the sample rather than the market price when it does.